Excuses Already Out for Lightyear: Movie Projected to Likely Flop

I’m not here to rain on Pixar’s parade or convince you of anything bad about Buzz Lightyear. I’m just looking at industry excuses and the data we have so far… and this isn’t looking good for Disney.

You know there’s trouble when excuses are already circulating even before something is released. That’s what we’re starting to see with Lightyear, even though we have no concrete idea what its final tally will be when it finishes this Father’s Day / Juneteenth holiday weekend. One thing that seems likely based on analysts is that it’s not going to perform even close to Pixar’s finest. Let’s first take a look at where predictions are landing for Chris Evans’ Lightyear:

The “Toy Story” spinoff is expected to launch to $70 million to $80 million from 4,200 North American theaters, which should be enough to claim the No. 1 spot. However, “Lightyear” will face steep competition from last weekend’s champion, Universal’s “Jurassic World Dominion,” which debuted to $145 million, as well as Paramount’s crowd-pleasing blockbuster “Top Gun: Maverick,” which has continued to defy the forces of gravity at the box office.

— Rebecca Rubin, Variety

Okay, so that takes care of our starting point as well as our very first excuse. Lightyear is aiming for between $70 and $80 million. How does that compare to other Pixar movies that released at a time when ticket sales were far less expensive (note that ticket prices are dramatically escalated post-pandemic due to inflation)?

Toy Story 4: $120.9M
Finding Dory: $135M
Incredibles 2: $182M

We can stop there and just say that Lightyear’s projection is perhaps… muted. 

But in the Variety quote we have above, we already arrive at our first excuse. Lightyear is going up against “steep competition.” The only problem is that Lightyear’s competition surely isn’t aiming for the same demographic as Pixar’s space ranger excursion. Is Jurassic World Dominion really pulling away seven-year-old kids and their families?

Here is excuse number two from The Wrap:

But first, we have Pixar’s “Toy Story” spinoff, a film that according to its introduction is the one that prompted Andy Davis to buy the Buzz Lightyear toy who would become pals with Woody in the famous 1995 classic. With the aforementioned spring family films as the only available comps and the tendency of spinoffs to open below franchise predecessors — look at “Hobbs & Shaw” versus “Fast & Furious” — “Lightyear” is not expected to open anywhere near the $120 million launch that “Toy Story 4” scored in 2019.

I’m really struggling to see how in the world we could consider either Hobbs & Shaw or Fast & Furious as comparables to Lightyear. They’re not even close to the same genres. But this is being done because the access and mainstream media are having to spin Lightyear as a “spin-off” rather than a bonafide entry in the Toy Story series. They’re using Andy and the toys for advertising purposes, but remember, it’s just a spin-off.

Fans seeing #TheAndyExperience Advance Screening of @Pixar’s #Lightyear are given an exclusive piece of art showing #ToyStory’s Andy enjoying the film that made him want the #BuzzLightyear toy! pic.twitter.com/e9HTM00PWQ

— LaughingPlace.com (@laughing_place) June 16, 2022

Here are the big problems for Lightyear and Pixar:

The last time Pixar brought out a movie to theaters, they were decimated. Onward failed miserably, and thankfully for Pixar, they were able to claim that the pandemic was the reason. That was mostly true, but it’s also true that Onward didn’t open well nor was it greatly received. It’s not sitting on the charts of Disney+ like Moana or Encanto. Now, after several years, Pixar is bringing Lightyear to the theaters and taking their chance to prove they still have that Pixar magic. But their new entry is heading for less than half of Incredibles 2 for its opening domestic weekend. Even worse, if this movie opens poorly, there’s no room to make it up. Minions: The Rise of Gru launches two weeks after Lightyear and it is competing with Lightyear directly. By every indication, The Rise of Gru is heading for a big start.

That means Lightyear has basically two weeks to do what it’s going to do. If it opens at $70-80 million domestically (maybe $130 million globally) and then it has a 50% drop in the next week, Lightyear is going to have a hard time getting over the $300 million mark. That’s 75% of Sonic the Hedgehog 2’s box office run, but Sonic had less than half of Lightyear’s budget. Lightyear cost an estimated $200 million in production, but we can easily assume it has an additional $100 million advertising budget. That brings the total cost for Lightyear to at least $300 million. Disney will get something around 60% of total revenues from movie theaters (most companies get 50% but Disney has sweetheart deals), which means it needs $500 million in gross global revenues to break even. If it opens at $130-150 million worldwide in the first weekend, I don’t see how it gets there with The Rise of Gru and Paws of Fury coming out after it this summer. That’s setting up a situation where Lightyear has a $100 million plus loss for its theatrical run.

Of course, this is all predicting the future and speculation. We don’t know what’s going to happen with Lightyear beyond what projections are showing. We just know that the media outlets are already starting to throw out some excuses. My favorite headline for the week, though:

Disney’s Lightyear Estimated to Have an Enormous Opening Weekend

Hard to say with a straight face after Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World Dominion, but I guess that’s the game some sites have to play.

Lightyear comes out for previews today. That Park Place will have a review up later this evening. As always, drop a comment down below and let us know your thoughts!