Headlines are blaring that Thor: Love and Thunder is performing mightily at the box office. They fail to mention less people are seeing it than Ragnarok.
Thor: Love and Thunder is completing its first weekend release and it’s coming in under its original projections. Though the worst case scenario was once $155 million, the movie now looks to only hit $143 million. While you might look at such a number and be impressed, it’s important to note that Marvel movies are some of the most expensive films to produce on the planet. The latest Thor cost somewhere between $200 million and $250 million in production only… with at least another $100 million in marketing on top of that. For us to even imagine that this movie breaks even, it’s going to need $600 million worldwide. That’s definitely likely, but Thor could make less profit than Sonic the Hedgehog 2 — that’s something you’re unlikely to hear anywhere else.
One of the things we’re tracking, which nobody else seems to be interested in doing, is to measure the actual audience attendance of Thor: Love and Thunder. According to Deadline, one of the tricks being used to inflate Thor’s box office haul is record-breaking ticket prices:
Also driving sales are the top exhibitors’ upcharge on Thor: Love and Thunder. EntTelligence shows that between preview night and Friday for the pic, AMC was charging an average of $15.05/seat and Regal $14.40/seat for Thor 4, compared to the national average of $13.48/seat. Only Cinemark was below that, with an average ticket price of $12.25.
If we assume an average of $14 per ticket, based on the quote above, about 10,214,000 people will have gone to see Thor in the first domestic weekend release. In 2017 the average cost of a movie ticket was $10.20. That also happens to be the year Thor Ragnarok released. Ragnarok had a first domestic weekend of $122,744,989. That looks smaller than this year’s Thor 4 estimate of $143,000,000. But compare the audience size. Based on ticket prices, Thor Ragnarok had 12,033,822 attend theaters in its first domestic weekend. That’s two million more people who went to see Thor Ragnarok than Thor: Love and Thunder!
Box Office: ‘Thor 4’ Thunderous With $143M Franchise-Best Opening https://t.co/6QGS5b4Er3
— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) July 10, 2022
Of course, you’ll never here that out of the major publications today. Seriously, go search for Thor: Love and Thunder and see how many other sites are taking the time to note this movie has a smaller audience than the prior film.
If all of those articles are being written by experts, one would only assume those individuals know what we’re telling you. We wonder why they’re not saying it.
For all the latest news that should be fun, keep reading That Park Place. As always, drop a comment down below and let us know if anyone else out there is saying this!
With $300 million box office, it’ll barely breakeven at $600 million at the box office with 50 percent weekly dropoff.
$300 + 150 + 75 + 40 + 20 + 10 + 5 = $600 million. This is not good for Thor. It’s worse than Dr Strange that made over $900 million.
Or it could go as high as the late 700’s early 800’s by the complete end of its run since I have seen it get a slightly better reception than DS2.
Who is gone first Feige or Kennedy?
Neither.
Kennedy will probably be gone when Indiana Jones 5 gets released………. Feige from what I see is laying the groundwork to leave by reducing his involvement in movies, but he probably won’t be leaving soon. My guess is that the earliest he will leave will be after Fantastic 4 bombs in the box office, but the truth is his reputation is so strong that he probably can’t be fired unless Marvel produces multiple Lightyear level bombs.
He already has Black Widow, Shang Chi, and Eternals under his belt. How much more disappointments? Oh yes, Thor Love and Thunder will barely breakeven.
Don’t forget the lackluster Marvel series on D+… Feige’s Phase 4 is an epic fail.
Those 3 marbwl films were the most successful at the box pffice compared to disneys other films released that year.
The average price per ticket you quoted for 2017 is for Regal theaters which factors in all sorts of special pricing/viewing structures. Other sources (such as The Numbers dot com) have the average price for tickets around $8.97. They also have the average price for tickets in the US for 2022 at $9.17 (the same for 2021) not $14.
With those numbers, it means that almost 2 million more people went to see Love and Thunder than Ragnarok. Even using the widest spread of prices I could find, there were still a minimum of 750K+ more tickets bought for Love and Thunder.
Just hopping on to respond because I’m checking comments… Thor Love and Thunder ticket prices are elevated just like The Batman I believe.