It is very much the tale of two strategies for the year of 2021. Sony Entertainment is poised to capture more than $1.5 billion this year from Spider-Man: No Way Home (which should hit $1 billion worldwide revenue on Christmas Day) and Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($500 million at the worldwide box office). The Walt Disney Company, on the other hand, is certain to have lost money on Marvel movies in 2021. Let’s take a look at the rundown on Disney Marvel movies for 2021:
Black Widow Numbers:
$125 million from Disney+ Streaming
$367 million from Box Office
Disney’s take from Box Office: $220 million
Total Disney Intake: $320 million
Production Budget: $200 million
Estimated Post-Production Budget (marketing, etc): $150 million
Estimated Loss (confirmed by Q4 revenue report): – $30 million
Amounts partially derived from: ScreenRant
Shang-Chi Numbers:
$418 million from Box Office
Disney’s take from Box Office: $251 million
Production Budget: $150 – $200 million (undisclosed)
Estimated Post-Production Budget: $100 million
Estimated Profit: + $1 million (essentially a draw)
The Eternals:
$400 million from Box Office
Disney’s take from Box Office: $240 million
Production Budget: $200 million
Estimated Post-Production Budget: $120 million
Estimated Loss: $80 million
This then means that Disney is estimated to have lost somewhere north of $100 million on Marvel movies this year with two of of the films being abject flops. There’s been some level of damage control in the past with sites like the Observer trying to defend Black Widow as a success, but the Fourth Quarter Revenue Report by The Walt Disney Company showed that was simply untrue.
So, Bob Chapek, if you’re reading this article, here’s some very simple math to take home as you plan out what changes need to occur at your company:
The Walt Disney Company
Three Marvel Films in 2021
$100 Million+ LOSS
Sony Entertainment
Two Marvel Films in 2021
$1 Billion+ PROFIT
Is it any wonder, then, that we’ve been reporting for months that Bob Chapek is demanding that Disney studios return to the heroes and characters that were making them vast amounts of money just a few years ago? Is it any wonder, then, that the drop in stock value for Disney might rightly be summed up by the comparison of Disney and Sony strategies?
Just so people understand the scope of Disney’s failure this year (because you know the mainstream media and access media aren’t going to present it this way), Marvel’s failure this year is moving into John Carter territory. And the John Carter movie of 2012 changed the way that Disney approached film-making for the next decade.
It’s certainly something to think about…
For Disney distributed Marvel movies, I anticipate we’ll see a combination of production budgets at the level of Venom 2 (~$100M), unless they are Avengers team-up type films, or sequels to a movie that did gross over a billion (they will have ~$200M budget), and what you’re predicting. However, theatrical original films are needed to build an IP, yet their budgets do need to be kept in check. (Disney does receive a percentage of Sony’s Marvel movies, which you have mentioned, including 100% for merchandise, so Sony’s Marvel success isn’t completely painful for them, yet I am certain this is also something they want to address). PS Merry Christmas!