A new survey from the Axios Harris Poll 100 claims that Republicans’ favorability of The Walt Disney Company has sharply increased since 2023.
Magician Mickey Mouse via Disney Parks YouTube
Axios claims that Disney’s favorability among Republicans increased from a score of 61.03 in 2023 to 67.8 in 2024.
The outlet declares, “Disney’s recovery among Republicans is notable, given how polarizing the firm remains. Disney has the fourth-largest political skew toward Democrats of all companies measured in the Axios Harris Poll 100, ranked only behind Target, Anheuser-Busch and Pfizer.”
(L-R): Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel/Kamala Khan, Brie Larson as Captain Marvel/Carol Danvers, and Teyonah Parris as Captain Monica Rambeau in Marvel Studios’ THE MARVELS. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2023 MARVEL.
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However, the poll’s methodology looks very suspect and as novelist and culture critic Brian Niemeier observes, “polls now exist more to shape behavior than quantify it. “The poll’s methodology appears to back up that assertion.
Axios details that, the poll is conducted via three separate surveys to different groups of people. First, they sent out an online sample to 6,273 Americans “from Jan. 16 to 27, 2024, to understand the public’s top-of-mind awareness of companies that either excel or falter in society. Respondents are asked which two companies — in their opinion — stand out as having the best reputation today and which two have the worst.”
Next, “All nominations are compiled into an aggregate list to determine the “most visible” companies. (Subsidiaries and brands are tallied within the parent company to create a total number of nominations for each company.)”
JOY AND ANXIETY — Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” returns to the mind of freshly minted teenager Riley just as a new Emotion shows up unexpectedly. Much to Joy’s surprise, Anxiety isn’t the type who will take a back seat either. Featuring the voices of Amy Poehler as Joy and Maya Hawke as Anxiety, “Inside Out 2” releases only in theaters Summer 2024.© 2023 Disney/Pixar. All Rights Reserved.
In the second survey, which was conducted between March 6 to 18, 2024 and sent to 16,500 Americans, they are “asked which of the 100 most visible brands from the first survey they are familiar with. From there, respondents are asked to rate two of the 100 most visible companies that they say they are “very familiar or somewhat with” on nine dimensions of reputation to calculate a Reputational Quotient, or RQ®, score for each.”
“The RQ® score determines the ranking of each brand in The Axios Harris Poll 100. Each company score is comprised of a statistically significant sample size of 325 respondents weighted to be representative of the U.S. Adult public on key demographics,” Axios adds.
Of note, Axios does not explain how they weigh the respondents to be representative of the U.S. Adult public on key demographics, which lends credence to the idea that they are putting their own assumptions into the poll and are attempting to use the poll to shape behavior rather than quantify it. In this, the idea is to make Republicans believe other Republicans now feel more favorable to Disney.
Mae (Amandla Stenberg) in Lucasfilm’s THE ACOLYTE, exclusively on Disney+. ©.
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Finally, Axios sends out a third survey to a completely different group of respondents from the first and second. In this survey respondents are tasked with answering “contextual questions on topics related to brands and politics. The contextual findings were conducted online over two waves between May 10 to 19 among two nationally representative samples of 2,119 (May 10 to 12) and 2,134 (May 17 to 19) U.S. adults.”
The whole methodology appears completely arbitrary. Of note it also has an appearance of being overly complex likely in an attempt to give the poll credibility.
PERCY JACKSON & THE OLYMPIANS – “Episode 107” (Disney/David Bukach)ARYAN SIMHADRI, LEAH SAVA JEFFRIES, WALKER SCOBELL
Nevertheless, the poll’s credibility is called into question on its face given it claims that Republicans’ favorability has sharply increased, but it does not provide any concrete or even circumstantial evidence as to why this would be the case.
This is something Axios was able to note when the company’s favorability decreased: “During the Trump presidency, Disney’s overall reputation score fell slightly from 82.04 in 2017 to 77.39 in 2020, but then dropped off dramatically during its public political battle with Gov. Ron DeSantis.”
In fact, as noted above, Axios itself seems to be questioning the results and conclusions they are drawing from the poll by noting, “Disney’s recovery among Republicans is notable, given how polarizing the firm remains.”
Jonathan Majors as Kang The Conqueror in Marvel Studios’ ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA. Photo by Jay Maidment. © 2022 MARVEL.
Real evidence in front of us also appears to indicate that Disney’s favorability among the general public has not increased at all. Looking at the company’s box office, it’s most recent theatrical release is set to be a bomb. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes has only grossed $298.6 million after three weekends in theaters. The film has an estimated production budget of $160 million, which means it needs to earn $400 million in order to break even. It’s unlikely to do that.
Not only are people not going to see the film, but those who have seen it are unimpressed. It has a B CinemaScore.
CinemaScore on X
Not only are the company’s films failing at the box office, but its TV shows on Disney+ are unable to compete with other streamers such as Netflix, Prime Video, Apple TV+, and Max.
According to Nielsen, only The Mandalorian was able to break into the top 10 for the most streamed original programs in the United States. And if you take a deep dive into that show the third season fared far worse than the second season given the total minutes viewed were less in 2023 than in 2020 despite the streamer nearly doubling its total subscriber base from 73.7 million to 150.2 million.
Nielsen’s 2023 Top 10 Original Streaming Programs
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In fact, one needs only look at the five-episode premiere of Echo bringing in 731 million minutes in its first and only week on the Nielsen charts.
That was the same amount of minutes watched that the single episode premiere of Loki brought in back in 2021. That’s right, five episodes of Echo in 2024 brought in the same amount of minutes watched of a single episode of Loki back in 2021.
Top 10 Nielsen Original programs for the week of January 8th to January 14th
The company’s stock price is also down over 22% in the past five years.
Disney stock price over the past 5 years.
In comparison the S&P 500 has increased over 92% in the last five years.
S&P 500 index over the past 5 years.
The eye test seems to show that The Walt Disney Company’s favorability rating has not increased no matter what political affiliation despite what this poll is claiming.
What do you make of this new poll?
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