The following article is rumor and should be treated as such.
According to sources I have, the fate of Marvel’s The Eternals may hang in the balance of how it performs this weekend at the box office. If the film does not do well, Disney may pull the trigger and put The Eternals on Disney+ ahead of Christmas in a December 23 – 25 timeline in order to try to salvage interest in the property. This would mean a very short theatrical run for the film, with the movie potentially debuting on Disney+ for free only 48 days after it was launched at cinemas. The bare minimum the film is required to run exclusive to movie theaters is 45 days per contracts held by The Walt Disney Company.
Some of this information appears to already be leaking onto the web. Yesterday, MSN ran an article about this possibility sans some of the potential details covered here.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/marvels-eternals-may-stream-possibly-free-on-disney-plus-before-christmas/
For context, we now know that Marvel has already pushed out two financial flops in Black Widow and Shang-Chi. Shang-Chi may still yet manage to break even, but it’s surprising that even it did not yet recoup its costs. While some media outlets have tried to spin this as a 2021 movie release fate compli, the truth is that some movies have managed to earn profits — even significant profits — in the present year. Who, then, could have foreseen that Marvel movies would be losing money this year? And though Shang-Chi overperformed box office expectations to reach a close-to break-even point, The Eternals seems to be on track for a significant financial loss for Disney… perhaps even in the tens (or more) of millions.
Perhaps this is why there’s reportedly friction between Disney CEO Bob Chapek and Marvel lead, Kevin Feige. Three straight losses totally in the hundreds of millions of dollars is not a great track record for Marvel in the past two years. Neither is failing to move the needle on Disney+ subscriptions whereas The Mandalorian succeeded spectacularly.
But Chapek likely has an even bigger problem on the horizon when it comes to Marvel. Whereas you can get away with a lot of stuff when you’re cranking out billion dollar blockbusters time after time, scrutiny arises when the plan begins to fail. With three major losses against Marvel, one of its chances to get back on the side of profit is Guardians of the Galaxy 3. Yet even there, actor conduct is potentially threatening to tank the whole thing:
Seriously. Fuck that kid. Fuck his breakdown. Fuck that judge. He’s a murderer who set out to murder people. He got out on bail and celebrated his murders with fucking racists. I have zero sympathy for him and neither should anyone else. https://t.co/kMDSA3aoeV
— Dave Bautista (@DaveBautista) November 11, 2021
Whether you agree with Dave Bautista, that a young man from Illinois is a murderer, getting involved in this highly polarizing news commentary in such an explicit manner is not necessarily a great marketing strategy for Disney. In other words, even if you agree with the actor, you likely can also see how it doesn’t improve the financial chances for Guardians of the Galaxy 3. Marvel doesn’t need a backlash. Simultaneous to this, Chris Pratt is in turmoil with the other side of the political spectrum, as he is rather constantly hated online by those who feel he is some sort of religious bigot. On top of all that, the film is being directed by James Gunn, a man who was previously fired from Disney for online comments that were seen as offensive and straying too close to very sensitive subjects.
Again, when you’re winning, much of this can be swept under the rug. But Marvel isn’t in a winning position right now. It may seem odd to say it, but they’re striking out hard in the current year. They need Guardians of the Galaxy to be a blow-out success, and anything that damages that opportunity is potentially damaging to the brand.
As for The Eternals, make no mistake: if Disney puts the film on Disney+ for Christmas, it’s not as a holiday gift to consumers. Rather, it might be more accurately described as a rushed end to a theatrical run to try to keep the film in the headlines. At this point, the company may just be scrambling to find some way to salvage its Phase 4 and Phase 5 Marvel plans. If you’re questioning the validity of that last statement, just consider they’re already questioning if a sequel is scrapped.
