It wasn’t long ago that Lin Manuel Miranda was considered an invincible superstar in the making. Coming off the highs of Hamilton and Moana, the singer / songwriter / actor / Broadway star was having the time of his life. But that was years ago, and in Hollywood it might as well have been an eternity.
In the Heights was an unmitigated disappointment at the box office, and it was pegged squarely on the shoulders of Lin Manuel Miranda. Rightly or wrongly, the Hamilton phenom had just put up his first major flop. Still, everyone is due for a stinker at least once or twice, so it was a given that this would eventually happen. And so, everyone waited for the rebound film that would solidify Miranda as the cinema draw they all thought he must be.
So here comes Encanto, and it is the rebound. There’s just one problem…
The Walt Disney Company has a recent history of toying with its movie release concept and how it schedules streaming versus big screen showings. Time and time again, Disney has utterly failed when it comes to adjusting the way movies have always worked. That’s not to say they shouldn’t have tried, only to say they either have yet to figure it out or audiences just aren’t going for the streaming-cinema hybrid scheme. The streaming release for Mulan didn’t work. The attempt at hiding Black Widow’s failure via secret Disney+ simultaneous numbers failed miserably — when your lead actress sues you over it, you’ve got a problem. And Black Widow still flopped. The system didn’t work for Cruella. But for whatever reason, Disney’s about to try another shot at it with Encanto.
“But Encanto isn’t releasing to streaming at the same time as its theatrical run,” you might say.
Ah, but the issue here is that Disney is still fiddling with success. There are two competing desires going on within the company: one to get their theatrical releases profitable again, and another to boost those Disney+ subscribers. They’re desperate for both, as people inside the company know they’re teetering on a really big problem if those don’t turn around fast.
The solution, then, is that they’re planning to release Encanto in theaters for thirty days. Then, they’re going to release it on Disney+ for free, in time for the holidays. But the issue here is… why would audiences pay significant cash to see the movie for Thanksgiving if they can just wait and watch it for free for Christmas?
Now, it may turn out that Disney strikes gold this time. In fact, I’m betting this works. But bets are for casinos, and it can’t be making Lin Manuel Miranda feel very comfortable that his big rebound attempt is getting the Disney+ experimental card. After all, do you think Disney is going to blame themselves if the movie flops at theaters? Do you think they’re going to somehow reveal the equivalent money they’re making via free streaming? Or do you think industry insiders will instead look at Miranda as having put out two flops in a row?
My guess is that this works. I think Encanto will do well at the box office and become a very solid Disney+ babysitting film, along the lines of Frozen perhaps but without quite the same retail support. And for Miranda’s situation, we’d all better hope that’s the case. Because if this thing bombs from people waiting to see it for free… there might not be a film adaptation of Hamilton waiting to save him.