This article is intended in no way to be alarmist or make a medical claim for which this website offers no special expertise. The following article simply delivers the news in regards to claims which have been made by third party medical experts and how that might affect travel and tourism – topics which we cover daily.
Are you tired of the pandemic yet? I certainly am. And I say that as someone who lives in an area of the country that is more-or-less open, free of most restrictions. I live my life much differently than someone who dwells in New York City or Australia. And yet I am tired of this pandemic, not so much for how it affects me daily, but because I am tired of the fear. I am tired of elderly family members having to stay outside because they have a medical condition that makes them unable to take some protective medications. I am tired of the unknown before us. I miss the carefree days of 2019.
So, I’m not happy at all to report on breaking news that is cause for concern. I’m fatigued with the idea of “concern”. But here we are.
According to New York Times Pulitzer Prize winning journalist, Donald G. McNeil Jr, there is a new Omicron mutation showing up in New York City, and it has the potential to be really “no bueno”. I myself am not a doctor, nor a Pulitzer Price winning journalist, so all I can do is tell you what is being said and what it would mean for travel and tourism. Here’s the quote:
In the last three days, an unusual mutation has cropped up more than 60 times in genetic sequences of the Omicron variant released by the NYU Langone genetics lab.
The mutation, known as P681R, inserts an “R” (for the amino acid arginine) at position 681 in the spike protein gene instead of a “P” (for proline). According to Henry L. Niman, an independent tracker of viral mutations, that change could enhance the virus’s “cleavage site” so it is better able to attack different kinds of human cells. (After attaching to a cell, the virus’s shell needs to “cleave” or split, so it can inject its RNA payload.) Being able to cleave to lung cells or heart cells instead of just to nose cells would make a virus more dangerous.)
A similar change in avian flu genes makes mild flus into bird killers, Dr. Niman said.
To parse some of that, Dr. Niman is positing that a new mutation of Omicron found in New York has the potential to be very dangerous. That doesn’t mean it is dangerous. It just means there is cause for concern. According to Dr. Niman, the mutation has the potential, although not yet proven to be true, to feature the same transmissibility levels of Omicron while delivering a potency on par with Delta. If he is correct, and he is one of the world’s leading experts in this area, that would be a tremendously bad roll of the dice for humanity.
So, let’s talk about tourism and travel. Already, we’re beginning to see major impacts of Omicron on these sectors of the economy that have been sucker punched repeatedly in the past two years. More than 1,500 flights have been cancelled just this weekend as airlines have struggled to keep crews on planes. Should the current trajectory of Omicron as a more mild variant change into it being a deadly variant, we could potentially see a near total shutdown of much of our international and domestic flights. It’s difficult to assess how bad that would be. Again, we’re not there yet, but we are the point we need to discuss a very bad door that we hope is not opened.
https://twitter.com/NinaBernstein1/status/1475159149679984641
There would be a silver lining on an otherwise very negative outcome. If Dr. Niman is correct and a new mutation is being discovered, that is as transmissible as Omicron but more damaging to human cells, we would likely see a much larger percentage of the population looking for outdoor leisure until that wave of virus dissipates. As an example, you would expect to see less trips to Disney World and more trips to national parks. You would expect to see theaters and cinemas shut down again, but we would probably keep the beaches open this time around. I’m not sure how hotels will respond this time, if things go negative once more, but there are so many indoor tourist destinations that I just can’t see how they could handle another wave of lockdowns. I can’t imagine how badly restaurants would suffer if we are faced with a new variant that acts out the nightmare scenario that Dr. Niman is somewhat predicting.
All I can say is we just have to hope and pray this isn’t true. It would be glorious to be at the end of this pandemic, not jumping into a brand new wave that strikes fear into all of society. So let us hope, and let us pray.
