Repeatedly the Disney Company has directed stockholders that the Parks and Experiences division could see weaker-than-hoped-for returns… and perhaps that could go on for up to eighteen months. However, we’re ready to disclose that the crown jewel of the entire company — Walt Disney World Resort — just might be in a freefall that needs far more coverage.
Yesterday, 10/9/2024, #DisneyWorld Crowd Levels:
⭐ Overall: 1/10
🏰 MK: 1
🌐 EP: 1
🎬 DHS: 1
🌳 AK: 1Highest wait: Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run, 55 min pic.twitter.com/TeBqurz4Z1
— WDW Passport (@WDWPassport) October 10, 2024
As the single-most important asset in all of Disney’s empire, Disney World brings in something like one-third of all of the mega corporation’s profits. That’s a huge number. Yet investors likely know nothing of what could be a spiral out of control in a negative way for the Happiest Place on Earth. Let’s explain:
The website “Thrill Data” collects and aggregates all of Disney World’s publicly posted wait times for their attractions and rides. Wait times are highly correlated with crowd levels. Although 2020 and 2021 data is skewed by atypical policies and procedures in the parks during those times, the rest of the years give us good information as to just how crowded the Disney World parks might be. And what we’ve discovered via Thrill Data is that Disney World’s wait times are falling precipitously during 2024 — we believe that holds true for attendance as well.
Wait Times measured for each month of 2024 through October at Walt Disney World; courtesy Thrill Data
READ: Disney Celebrates Longest-Running Cast Member Career: 92-Year-Old “Hank” Still Working at Disneyland
As you can see from the above chart, Disney World wait times (and likely attendance) have been dropping every single month of the year. To say this is atypical would be an understatement. The normal way that Disney attendance ebbs and flows is nowhere to be seen here. There is no summer bounce. There is no pickup in October. We don’t even see Spring Break months have lift whatsoever. The chart above begins with December of 2023, and as you can see, except for February, every single month has followed the same drop. That’s highly abnormal. For a comparison, here is what 2023 looked like:
Wait times for Disney World in 2023 via Thrill Data
The prior year was far more normal, although still not great for the parks. Summer months missed their marks but a great December finish at least somewhat made up for it. The usual bounces, however, are still in place, even if muted during the hottest vacation months of the year. That’s in stark contrast to the non-stop drop Disney World is currently experiencing. Of course, the hurricanes have not helped in 2024, but that’s only one month of the year… and at this point it doesn’t look like the latter half of October is going to be able to dig the company out of this hole.
One can only surmise that the pattern must stop in November. Surely crowds will reverse for the Thanksgiving holiday. Still, we’ve never seen anything like this in terms of steady attendance and wait time drops across the parks… and it’s going to take one heck of a holiday season to make the final outcome better than dismal.
NEXT: Disneyland Raises Prices While Sending Out Discounts: How Much Will Vacationers Really Spend?
