The year of 2021 has not been a kind one to The Walt Disney Company. Yes, articles on The Motley Fool will tell you that Disney may rebound in 2022, but for the past twelve months, the company has essentially lost 20% of its stock value. Movie after movie have been box office failures for Disney. Rivals like Sony have out-profited them at cinemas by orders of magnitude. While Disney World and Disneyland have gotten Disney Parks out of the pandemic hole, the internal guest polling and feedback is reportedly not great. On Disney+, not only have subscriber numbers fallen far short of prior goals and expectations, but Disney Marvel miniseries have failed to move the needle even a smidge. The company may not have had apocalyptic experiences, but another year like 2021 would cut their stock in half of 2020’s highs.
That’s why after a dismal ratings appearance by the miniseries Hawkeye, Disney executives are watching The Book of Boba Fett very closely.
You see, it was The Mandalorian at the launch of Disney+ that drove massive numbers of new subscriptions. Literally everyone was talking about that show. It proved that not only could The Walt Disney Company dive into their treasure chest of classic movies and shows, but they could create new content on par with cinematic releases. It showed that Lucasfilm could completely reverse course from the narrative and aesthetic directions of the sequel trilogy, if only Jon Favreau was at the helm of the material. The Mandalorian brought the fans that both Iger and Chapek had thought were gimmes in regards to Disney+ and Star Wars.
As we end 2021, however, there are no more freebies for Disney. Disney+ subscriptions continue to lag far below where the company needs them to be. Spider-Man No Way Home has shown the attempts to change entertainment narratives for the past five years have been an utter failure. Disney needs to correct the ship, but the ship moves slowly. With no big Marvel releases until the summer of 2022 and no dated Star Wars material at all after The Book of Boba Fett, executives are watching Favreau and Filoni’s latest offering as a bellwether for what is to come. If the series is well-received, it may undo some of the damage The Mandalorian has suffered from political decisions by Kathleen Kennedy and Lucasfilm. If the series fails to draw viewers, then this may very well be a cold, cold winter for the House of Mouse… and portend a rough first quarter revenue report forthcoming.
Don’t forget, Disney is betting just about everything on Disney+. Remember The Disney Channel? All but sacrificed for the pursuit of the streaming platform:
All Disney Channels lost approximately 10 million subscribers in the U.S. between September 2020 & 2021.https://t.co/S8Hg7gFTNM pic.twitter.com/2vW8TYBLTr
— Disney Animation Promos (@DisneyAPromos) November 25, 2021
The Walt Disney Company needs a win. Mainstream media and access media won’t tell you that, because it doesn’t advance their interests. People like Scott Mendelson, who are great for being so wrong that you can gauge what’s correct by taking the opposite position they hold, are busy defending The Last Jedi even to this day because the entire premise of postmodern narratives in blockbusters is utterly falling apart (it’s dead, the industry will change, sorry Scott). But the truth is the truth… Disney has had an awful year, and they need Boba Fett to be a success or else this is going to get much uglier before it gets better. All respect in the world to Ryan Reynolds, but you can’t have a year where Free Guy is just about your only profitable movie.
So let’s all be savvy viewers and followers of the entertainment industry. Watch the response to Boba Fett closely, because the people in the know are watching it with a magnifying glass.
