It has been a very rough year for Disney+ once one looks beyond the headlines and the media narratives surrounding profitability. Yes, by eliminating the churn to the point Disney really only has one new show every other month that they produced new, the story can be that Disney+ makes money. Of course, to make that case, you also have to include the money that Hulu brings in and then ignore that Disney+ on its own would be a giant sucking machine of losses. But for now, at least Disney isn’t losing so much that when they hobble Hulu in a three-legged race with the namesake streamer, the numbers still show negative.
However, it’s quickly starting to be the case that Disney CEO Bob Iger and crew can’t hide how poorly Disney+ is faring any more. Just six days ago, an exclusive report from prominent YouTuber and professional financial analyst, Valliant Renegade, detailed that Disney is facing an onslaught of anger from their ad partners who are realizing there are far less people tuning into Disney+ than they had believed when they signed the commercial contracts.
The ad-supported tier of Disney Plus was intended to solve the company’s streaming challenges. However, low audience engagement with major Star Wars and Marvel shows has led to below-average impressions. In response, Disney is reportedly trying to shift advertisers to broadcast television in an effort to retain their business and avoid costly refunds.
— Marvin Montanaro, That Park Place
Now, it’s looking even worse on the Nielsen side of things where ratings are put on full display. Regardless of how much Disney cuts productions, no matter how many $1.99 subscriptions they sell… Disney must get eyeballs on new content or else they’re losing ground on creating merchandising ecosystems, driving ads to consumers, and so much more. For ratings, where it matters, Disney is struggling majorly.
Courtesy The Nielsen Company
The above chart tells the tale. Paramount is taking over when it comes to original content. At a time when Disney+ was winding down Agatha All Along, there’s simply nothing going on for the House of Mouse in original content. Of course, original content excels in making ad partners happy because it tends to be episodic content that has viewers returning week-after-week for new stuff and characters they love. But instead of seeing Disney there, it’s Prime Video, Paramount+ and Netflix (of course) that are doing so well.
But perhaps this is a one-off, right? Maybe it’s just a cleverly selected week where we can make the point only with a narrowed set of boundaries?
Fortunately for Paramount and Netflix, that’s not the case. In fact, they continue to dominate original streaming content. To prove the point, let’s look at the latest data from Nielsen-rival, Luminate, which is featured in a recent Variety article:
Courtesy Luminate and Variety
The chart from Luminate shows that shows like Day of the Jackal are beating Star Wars‘ Skeleton Crew. The Later Daters, a show which I had never even heard anything about and still have no idea what it is, is managing to beat… again… a Disney live action Star Wars show. Skeleton Crew shows up nowhere.
The bottom line: keep an idea on Paramount+. While Disney is floundering but hiding it with a great corporate PR strategy, Paramount is putting together an impressive streaming program on scant resources. They’re also about to win a major victory with Sonic 3 at the box office. All of that adds up for a David Versus Goliath moment that could just give Paramount the lifeline they need. It’s only a shame most people won’t know about it because it isn’t part of the approved, orthodoxia, mainstream news narrative.
