There is little joy in reporting that a majority of movie-goers aren’t going to theaters anymore. After a half-decade of heavily partisan and ideological fare at the box office, Disney is still the winner for movie revenues… but those revenues have decreased dramatically. Worse, because of inflation, the reduction in audience numbers are largely hidden in terms of just how severe this drop-off has become.
The year 2024 will undoubtedly be remembered for Disney’s resurgence at the box office. After a lackluster 2023 filled with underperforming films like Pixar’s Elemental and Marvel’s The Marvels, Disney stormed back this year to become the only studio to cross the $2 billion mark domestically. It achieved this feat with three of the top five highest-grossing, domestic films of the year: Inside Out 2 ($652.9 million), Deadpool & Wolverine ($636.7 million), and Moana 2 ($342 million, still playing in theaters). This level of dominance underscores the continued strength of Disney’s brands and its ability to draw audiences to theaters. Yet, a broader look at the numbers raises a troubling question: is Disney’s victory truly a win for the industry as a whole?
(L-R): Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, and Director Shawn Levy on the set of Marvel Studios’ DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE. Photo by Jay Maidment. © 2024 20th Century Studios / © and ™ 2024 MARVEL.
In order to know for sure, we need to compare 2024 with the last pre-pandemic year of box office results: 2019.
While Disney’s 2024 performance is impressive, it pales in comparison to the industry highs of 2019. That year, global box office receipts hit a record $42.5 billion, driven by international audiences who contributed $31.1 billion, marking the first time the international box office surpassed $30 billion. Disney alone accounted for five of the top ten films globally, including Avengers: Endgame, which became the highest-grossing movie of all time with $2.79 billion worldwide.
In contrast, 2024 has seen no such record-breaking totals. The highest-grossing film domestically, Inside Out 2, earned $652.9 million, a far cry from the $858 million domestic haul of Avengers: Endgame in 2019. Even Disney’s broader lineup, while dominant, lacks the same level of global impact as it did five years ago. Meanwhile, other studios have struggled to produce hits on par with 2019’s blockbusters like Joker or Spider-Man: Far From Home.
The U.S. box office has seen a noticeable decline since 2019, when domestic receipts reached $11.4 billion, the second-highest total on record despite a 4.4% year-over-year dip. By comparison, the 2024 domestic market remains far below these peaks, even with Disney’s contributions. Moana 2 and Wicked, both still in theaters, may yet add to the year’s totals, but they are unlikely to bring the industry close to its 2019 heights. According to Box Mojo, the current domestic tally for all movies at the box office is only $7.98 billion. That’s nearly a $3 billion shortfall despite inflation raising ticket prices since 2019 by as much as 40%. It could, perhaps, equal a reality for movie theaters in which half the audience is staying home in a pattern that could create a spiral for cinemas.
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— BEEP (@kristanovva) August 27, 2024
Another trend worth noting is the continued dominance of sequels, remakes, and existing franchises. In 2024, the top ten domestic films include entries like Despicable Me 4, Dune: Part Two, and Kung Fu Panda 4, with little room for original stories. This mirrors 2019, when the top ten global films were all part of established franchises. While these films are reliable box office draws, their prevalence reflects an industry increasingly reliant on familiar brands, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of theatrical releases.
Disney’s dominance at the box office in 2024 is undeniable, but its crown rules over a kingdom far smaller than just a few years ago. It has delivered blockbuster after blockbuster, reaffirming its place as the most powerful studio in Hollywood. When viewed against the backdrop of 2019’s record-breaking year, however, the current state of the industry is less encouraging. Declining revenues, an overreliance on franchises, and the lack of truly groundbreaking global hits suggest that while Disney may have won 2024, the box office as a whole continues to face significant challenges. In this environment, there are no true winners—only survivors navigating an increasingly uncertain future.
