With just a month until release, Captain America: Brave New World is already facing criticism for what looks to be a lackluster opening weekend box office performance.
Projections from Shawn Robbins at Box Office Theory estimate the film will earn between $81 million and $107 million domestically in its first weekend, with a likely figure of $96 million. While certain media outlets are painting this number as a “win,” a closer comparison to past Marvel successes reveals a very different story—one that suggests the MCU is in significant decline.
Anthony Mackie as Sam Wilson/Captain America in Marvel Studios‘ CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD. Photo by Eli Adé. ©: Captain America: Brave New World Cuts WWE’s Seth Rollins After Frantic Rewrites and Reshoots, Wrestler Says He Doesn’t Want His Fans to ‘Waste Their Time’ on the Marvel Film
Some media outlets have rushed to frame these numbers as positive, highlighting the $96 million figure as a solid opening for a February release. On paper, the projection might seem decent, but when you consider that this film is opening on a five day weekend that features both Valentine’s Day and President’s Day and hold it against the backdrop of the MCU’s former glory, the cracks in Disney’s once-dominant franchise become glaringly apparent.
For example, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania opened to $106.1 million in 2023, a number that initially seemed respectable, especially considering the performance of the previous two Ant Man films. But it quickly lost its luster when the film experienced a historic second-weekend drop and ultimately bombed with $214 million in the domestic box office.
Also, when comparing Captain America to Ant Man, they’re not in the same league. Captain America is one of Marvel’s premiere heroes, while Ant Man is a secondary character at best. Marvel launched into its post-Endgame phases believing in a “mantle” strategy, where they could move a new more diverse team of heroes into the roles of established heroes with no box office disruption.
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Harrison Ford as Red Hulk in Captain America: Brave New World – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
We saw this with Sam Wilson inheriting the mantle of Captain America, Kate Bishop taking over as Hawkeye, Riri Williams becoming Iron Heart, Etc. But audience reception has been clear: The mantle strategy doesn’t work.
Robbins also predicted the film will top out domestically somewhere between $195 million and $280 million for its whole run, which falls way short of the mark set by its predecessors.
When compared to previous Captain America films starring Chris Evans, the gap becomes even more pronounced. Captain America: Civil War (2016), which prominently featured Chris Evans in the titular role, opened to a massive $179.1 million, eventually raking in $408 million domestically. In contrast, the projected $96 million opening for Brave New World would represent a staggering 46% drop in opening weekend revenue and an estimated 41% reduction in total domestic gross—even before adjusting for inflation.
Chris Evans as Captain America in Captain America: Civil War (2016), Marvel Studios
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Looking further back to 2014, Captain America: The Winter Soldier opened with $95 million and earned $259.7 million domestically. Adjusted for inflation, these figures climb to $126.6 million for the opening weekend and $356 million for the total domestic haul—numbers that dwarf Brave New World’s projections.
Winter Soldier was released at a time when the average movie ticket price was $8.14. Eleven years later, the average ticket price is $10.78. This means that even if Brave New World matches Winter Soldier’s $259.7 million domestic total, far fewer people will have seen the film, underscoring a significant decline in audience interest.
Additionally, the financial stakes for Brave New World are far higher. Winter Soldier had a reported production budget of $170 million and Civil War (which featured Robert Downey Jr., Scarlett Johansson, and most of the Avengers line up) had a budget of $250 million.
Anthony Mackie behind the scenes of Marvel Studios’ CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD. Photo by Eli Adé. © 2024 MARVEL.
Brave New World’s budget, however, is rumored to be in the $350–$375 million range. Factoring in the cost of extensive reshoots, many believe production costs before marketing could approach half a billion dollars. With marketing expenses often doubling the total investment, the film would need a massive global haul just to break even. By comparison, Winter Soldier was a leaner production that achieved blockbuster status without the excessive financial baggage that Brave New World carries.
The muted projections come amidst reports of a chaotic production. Extensive rewrites and reshoots plagued the film earlier this year, allegedly to incorporate Giancarlo Esposito’s new villain, Sidewinder, the leader of the Serpent Society. These production issues not only delayed the film but also fueled concerns about the cohesiveness of the final product.
Seth Rollins on the set of the of new Captain America Film: New World Order 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/VKSpizwxtE
— Wrestlelamia.com (@wrestlelamia) May 16, 2023
WWE superstar Seth Rollins, whose role in the film was entirely cut during the reshoots, confirmed the chaotic nature of the production. Speaking to YouTuber Chris Van Vliet, Rollins said:
“I am not in the movie. I don’t want anybody to go to the film thinking, ‘Oh, I’m here to see Seth Rollins.’ There might be two people who would do that, but I don’t want those two people to waste their time. I don’t want to misinform anybody. I don’t want to lead anybody astray. I am not in the film.”
Anthony Mackie as Sam Wilson/Captain America in Marvel Studios’ CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2024 MARVEL.
Adding to its woes, Brave New World has already sparked backlash from segments of the fanbase. Many have expressed frustration with the MCU’s perceived prioritization of overt political messaging and DEI-driven decisions over strong storytelling.
Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson, who takes up the Captain America mantle in this film, has struggled to resonate with audiences in the same way Chris Evans’ Steve Rogers did. Critics have pointed to The Falcon and the Winter Soldier series as a prime example of how identity politics can alienate fans, with themes that some argue overshadow character development.
(L-R): Director Julius Onah, Xosha Roquemore, and Anthony Mackie behind the scenes of Marvel Studios’ CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD. Photo by Eli Adé. © 2024 MARVEL.
While $96 million might seem like a healthy number to some, it pales in comparison to the towering box office achievements of Marvel’s past. The MCU’s golden age, marked by massive openings and cultural buzz, seems increasingly distant. With Disney facing mounting criticism over its handling of its flagship franchise, Captain America: Brave New World could become another example of Marvel’s struggle to recapture its former box office magic.
Are you surprised by these Captain America: Brave New World box office projections? Do you think the global box office might save the film? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
Wait is this still a thing? I though It already flopped, Disney is going the ubisoft route? Delay until broke?
Anthony Mackie is good in marvel stuff but not as cap Steve Rodgers end of.
We all know movie projections these days are cooked. It’s like they think they can lie reality into existence and it fails every time.
Hollywood race-swaps the hero from white to black (it’s always in that one direction). And then Hollywood wonders why no one wants to see their woke movie. POCs don’t like it either, as it’s Hollywood being patronising.