Thunderbolts is projected to become a major flop for Marvel, losing upwards of $100 million.
Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts was supposed to be a return to form — a morally grey, character-driven ensemble film featuring beloved anti-heroes like Florence Pugh’s Yelena Belova and Sebastian Stan’s Winter Soldier. With a high-octane cast and a more grounded, espionage-style narrative, the film promised to reinvigorate a sagging Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Bucky in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
Instead, it’s crashing harder than expected — and it may be about to cost Disney over $100 million.
Box Office Breakdown: Strong Cast, Weak Legs
As of May 26, Thunderbolts has grossed $174 million domestically and $181 million internationally, for a global total of just $355 million. While that may look respectable at a glance, multiple industry reports place the film’s break-even point at around $500 million when accounting for production, marketing, and global distribution costs.
The Thunderbolts in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
Even with the traditional long tail of box office runs, Thunderbolts is unlikely to reach the $400 million mark — far short of profitability. That puts it in the same dismal company as The Marvels ($205M worldwide), and just below Eternals ($402M), Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($476M), and Captain America: Brave New World ($415M).
That last comparison is particularly revealing. Brave New World was widely panned by critics and divided fans. Thunderbolts, on the other hand, has a 93% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63% on Criticless, suggesting a far warmer reception.
So why isn’t it growing?
Marvel’s Word-of-Mouth Engine Is Broken
Historically, Marvel’s biggest weapon hasn’t just been brand recognition — it’s been momentum. Even mid-tier entries like Doctor Strange or Ant-Man saw extended legs thanks to buzz, social media hype, and the interconnected nature of the MCU. That’s no longer the case.
Yelena in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
Thunderbolts shows that even a film audiences like — even love, by fan rating standards — can now open soft and stay soft. That’s a massive red flag. It suggests that Marvel isn’t just suffering from weak entries, but from a fundamental erosion of audience trust and interest.
This failure of word-of-mouth to drive growth may be the most dangerous trend yet for Disney. A studio once powered by unstoppable cultural momentum is now releasing films that simply fade from the public consciousness within days.
The Franchise That Forgot How to Win
Bob Iger has openly acknowledged that Marvel Studios may have overextended itself, flooding theaters and Disney+ with too many titles, too fast, with too little care. Thunderbolts was meant to be part of the fix — a stripped-down team-up film that leaned more into action and grounded storytelling.
Instead, it’s become a cautionary tale.
The team in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
The MCU’s Phase Five was pitched as a reset, but the results have been anything but reassuring:
- Quantumania was meant to establish Kang as the new Thanos — it flopped.
- Brave New World tried to pass the shield — it fell flat.
- Thunderbolts hoped to shake things up with morally grey characters — it vanished without a trace.
And all of this comes before Marvel’s next high-stakes gamble: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, due later this summer.
That film was recently retooled with new writers and a fresh tone to kick off a lighter, more optimistic direction. But if Thunderbolts can flop with a popular cast, good word-of-mouth, and less competition, what does that say about the MCU’s ability to recover at all?
A Brand in Crisis, Not Just a Movie
The Thunderbolts flop isn’t just another disappointing line item. It may be the clearest signal yet that Marvel has lost its ability to reignite excitement — even when it gets things mostly right.
And that should terrify the leadership at Disney and Marvel Studios.
Bucky in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
In the past, even a B-tier Marvel movie could rely on a solid opening and an upward trend in its second and third weekends. Now, the drop-offs are swift and final. The brand doesn’t carry weight like it used to — and worse, audiences don’t feel the need to see a Marvel movie anymore. There’s no longer fear of missing out. There’s no longer a compelling universe drawing fans back in week after week.
What’s left is a string of expensive projects with increasingly smaller returns and less cultural relevance.
What Comes Next?
If Fantastic Four fails to capture lightning in a bottle, there may be no more excuses left. The MCU has clearly stalled out — and Thunderbolts may mark the moment it became undeniable. The once-invincible franchise is now bleeding at the box office, and no amount of high audience scores or nostalgia can patch it up.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – APRIL 11: Kevin Feige, President, Marvel Studios speaks onstage during the Walt Disney Studios presentation at Cinemacon in Las Vegas, Nevada on April 11, 2024. (Photo by Jesse Grant/Getty Images for Disney)
Marvel needs more than a hit — it needs a mission. And so far, Phase Five doesn’t seem to have one.
Are you surprised that Thunderbolts is a flop? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
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