A sobering new survey is sending shockwaves through the movie theater industry, as over half of exhibition executives now believe the traditional cinema experience may not survive beyond the next two decades.
The survey, conducted by analyst and author Stephen Follows in partnership with exhibitor-focused outlet Screendollars, polled 246 U.S.-based film industry professionals across exhibition, production, sales, and distribution sectors. When asked how long they believed the “traditional cinema experience” would remain a viable business model, approximately 55% of exhibition executives responded with some form of pessimism — choosing timeframes of “less than five years,” “five to 10 years,” or “10 to 20 years” for the movie theater industry.
JOY AND ANXIETY — Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” returns to the mind of freshly minted teenager Riley just as a new Emotion shows up unexpectedly. Much to Joy’s surprise, Anxiety isn’t the type who will take a back seat either. Featuring the voices of Amy Poehler as Joy and Maya Hawke as Anxiety, “Inside Out 2” releases only in theaters Summer 2024.© 2023 Disney/Pixar. All Rights Reserved.
Even more striking: executives in TV, production, and especially sales and distribution were even more skeptical than exhibitors. More than 60% of sales and distribution executives stated they believe the traditional movie theater industry model is unlikely to last beyond 20 years.
While the term “traditional cinema experience” was left open to interpretation, it generally refers to standard moviegoing — regular showtimes, non-premium theaters, and in-person attendance without streaming or at-home alternatives. However, some respondents may have differentiated between traditional auditoriums and higher-end options like IMAX, 4DX, or dine-in theaters, suggesting that a pivot toward premium experiences may be one path forward.
GO FOGHORNS! – In Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2,” newly minted teenager Riley (voice of Kensington Tallman) is still passionate about hockey, and her team the Foghorns are champions. Next up: high school. Directed by Kelsey Mann and produced by Mark Nielsen, “Inside Out 2” releases only in theaters June 14, 2024. © 2024 Disney/Pixar. All Rights Reserved
Follows noted in his write-up that change may not equate to extinction: “It could be that the ‘traditional cinema experience’ evolves and changes with the times, meaning that the people, companies and locations survive but in a different form.”
The survey also revealed serious financial strain within the exhibition world. Nearly 90% of U.S. theater executives admitted their revenue has still not returned to pre-lockdown levels, more than four years after the global health crisis disrupted the entertainment business.
Superman withstands fire in the trailer for James Gunn’s Superman – YouTube, DC
When asked about the impact of current release strategies, the vast majority of theater owners and operators pushed back against day-and-date streaming. A resounding 77% said that simultaneous digital releases harm the theatrical model, while 81% support an exclusive theatrical window of at least six weeks for new releases.
The findings come amid increasing uncertainty for the movie theater industry as Hollywood studios continue to prioritize streaming content, shrink theatrical windows, and struggle to deliver the kind of consistent box office blockbusters that once sustained exhibitors year-round. Meanwhile, the rise of streaming-first hits and serialized prestige content has shifted consumer habits — with more and more viewers opting to stay home.
Tom Cruise as Les Grossman in Tropic Thunder – YouTube, The Nostalgia Zone
Despite these concerns, the theatrical experience is not entirely without defenders. Exhibitors polled were notably more optimistic than their peers in other sectors, with a larger percentage choosing “more than 20 years” when asked about the longevity of moviegoing. This suggests that those closest to the theater experience still believe in its cultural and commercial value — even as they acknowledge the need for adaptation.
Tom Cruise standing for an interview – YouTube, The Upcoming
Whether through premium formats, eventized screenings, or redefined business models, the message from the survey is clear: the clock is ticking for the traditional model, and the movie theater industry must evolve or risk fading into history.
What do you think will ultimately become of the movie theater industry? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
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This is like saying consoles die. Doomers just love doing stupid predictions.
True. The *industry* is crashing but it will rebuild itself like it did after 1984. Consoles will likely always exist.
Theaters might hit rough patches like drive-ins did but I doubt they’ll die out completely. There are still a few functioning drive-in theaters in the US and they survive by being niche attractions.
Whether Hollywoke will survive another twenty years is the real question. Consider: how many Hollywoke films have simply broken even, much less turned a profit, for the past five years? Barbie, Oppenheimer, D&W, those are the only three major hits I can remember. Others might make modest amounts or just break even at best while several are total flops.
Theaters are already screening more and more indie films and while not booming, they’ll survive however diminished. Given how much money ticket sales account for a film’s success or failure financially, it’s *Hollywoke* that’s in danger of dying out.
It is true the list is shrinking and very few movies featuring The Message are finding success. The list is so small that people can remember the list. Still, Top Gun: Maverick, Inside Out 2, Moana 2 all made out like bandits in the theater. I think what we’re seeing is the death of Blockbusters and Tentpole movies more than movies and theaters in general.
Also, I am not sure we should use pure box office as our metric. Per screen, Angel Studios Sound of Freedom and King of Kings were wildly successful and more than made their money back despite smaller box office, and on the other side of the spectrum Sinners brought in far more than its budget + marketing.
At the same time the theater experience has changed to one that caters, mostly, to middle class to well-to-do. Especially, with families. Upscale food service direct to chair, adult beverages, and higher quality boutique concessions risk moving theaters to being totally unaffordable.
It is sort of like what we see in theme parks that are moving to cater to DINKs and “Disney Adults” at the expense of a family event.
Woke, weak-male, strong-female movies. Ugly actors and actresses. Left wing propaganda. Race swaps. Whites-shaming. Rising prices. This business model is perfect… if you want to go bust.
As usual, the people dissecting the issue refuse to acknowledge the real problems, and that’s no one wants to watch what you’re selling. Creativity and originality in Hollywood is long dead, and given how much junk shovelware-style TV and movies there are it’s hard for a good independently produced movie or TV show to stand out. The last movie I bothered to see in theaters was John Wick 4, and even that wasn’t worth it. I can’t think of a single movie or TV show currently in development that I’m excited for, and judging by box office numbers and TV ratings I’m not alone.