The one-and-done (probably) Batman film from Warner Bros, ingeniously named “The Batman”, is headed for several unmapped factors that could swing its overall haul wildly in different directions. On the one hand, Variety is reporting that they expect the film to total between $100 – $125 million for its domestic opening weekend. Of note is that The Batman soft launches today, a Tuesday, so these “weekends” are getting more and more bloated. Is it really the weekend if all that is left off is a Monday? I hate Mondays too, but let’s at least hate on Tuesdays and Wednesdays as well.
“This is clearly an important film for the industry at large, but also for the studio, is now turning its attention to the ‘theatrical first’ release model for its films moving forward. With ‘Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore’ due in April, ‘The Batman’ will set the stage for success for Warner Bros. for the rest of 2022 and beyond in theaters.”
— Paul Dergarabedian, Comscore Senior Media Analyst
Meanwhile, Scott Mendelson of Forbes, a man who is known for being wrong ninety percent of the time and still keeping a job, is predicting an $80 million launch for the new, broody Dark Knight. If you’re wondering why nobody is reporting on international box office predictions, well, there’s a war that makes predicting anything rather impossible. Just try to figure out what European theaters will do when you can’t even predict what might happen in the way of nuclear threats day-to-day. Good luck with that.
Still, even the domestic predictions are disparate. An $80 million opening versus a $120 million opening is a major gap… almost to the point of just saying “it’s going to do well.”
The reason that industry aficionados and analysts are having a hard time pegging this one is because of several factors:
- The aforementioned war in Europe is hugely tricky even for predicting American box office results. It’s been so long since we’ve had a war in Europe, and we’ve never really had a war with cameras everywhere like in Ukraine. How does this affect moviegoers? Does it make people want to escape to the movies, or do people just feel bummed out and stay at home?
- The Batman is a dark, somber, messy film. It’s three hours of darkness and rain. Is that the sort of film that people want to see at a time when inflation is running sky high, nuclear war is being threatened for the first time in many decades, and images of carpet bombs in urban centers are out there?
- A three-hour movie is quite the commitment. Sometimes that can pay off with movies like the Lord of the Rings trilogy… but it can also drive audiences away if the film isn’t a market-driver.
- I don’t think masking is a big factor in all of this, but there is some difficulty in figuring out if New York and Los Angeles Batman fans will be hesitant to return to movies at a time when vaccine papers and masks are seemingly gone.
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All of that said, I’ve used a prediction model for movies over the past two years and it has been incredibly reliable. Still, I’m not fully confident that I can predict The Batman because of the war angle. If things change on the world stage, all bets are off when it comes to how many people really want to go see Gotham City.
But let’s have some fun and see how close my model comes to the actual total for The Batman in a world of uncertainty. Surely I can beat Scott, right? So here’s the WDW Pro Domestic Movie Revenue Prediction™ for The Batman’s first “weekend”:
$91 Million
Wherever you are and whatever you’re doing, stay safe. Go take a walk amongst nature and get some sunshine if you can. And if you’re excited about The Batman, drop us a comment below and tell me why I’m right or wrong on this prediction. We’ll have a review up later this week. And, as always, keep checking out That Park Place for all the latest news that should be fun!
Hmm. You called out a critic for being wrong, yet you then offered your own prediction that is $11 million more optimistic. That’s not exactly giving this movie much confidence.
Opening a movie on Tuesday gives the studios more box office returns before the usual huge drop off on the second week. Tuesday – Thursday don’t count for Weekend box office returns that are often compared between blockbusters so I think they just want to keep the money coming in while they can get it.
You never know, Mendelson could be right this time. That’s part of the game of prognostications. However, if it’s close, I reserve the right to invoke Price Is Right rules ;)
Since the pandemic started, I believe Venom 2 (~$90M) and SM: NWH (~$260M) are the two highest domestic grossers for opening weekend. Haven’t heard a lot of buzz about The Batman and the world seems especially $hitty right now but I don’t care. It’s still Batman.
I’m an optimistic person prone to over-estimates but I’m going $150M. That’s higher than any posted estimate I’ve seen. I’m bullish because it’s Batman and in my neck of the woods, Long Island, the 11 AM showing has over 10% of its seats already booked. It’s the first of 14 showings on Friday, a school day. The “supply” is out there. I think the audience demand will rise to fill it.
If it lands at $150 million on the nose, you might have a job in box office analysis lol!
I already have a job in commercial real estate valuation. My experience with valuation models, they’re better at predicting the “average”. But outliers, like trophy buildings, major movie franchise openings, 100-year storms, etc., the proficiency suffers.
Driving to work today, I heard AMC is “experimenting” with higher ticket prices in NYC. $26.
Interesting. I’m sure one of our writers will take a look at the AMC scoop — thank you!
Anecdotal data but my local theater (AMC / new / 12 screens) added 2 showings during the middle of the day, going from 14 to 16. Both the late showings are almost full, too. Mendelson’s top range estimate is $155M. By the numbers is at $150Mish. Smells like a barn burner to me.
The largest domestic opener to *not* hit $1B in gross box office was Batman vs Superman. It was ~$166M opener and ~$873M overall. The Batman is a superior movie with much less competition. Probably fait accompli this is a $1B grosser.
Curious how you arrived at your prediction of $91M? (i.e. the math you used, calculations) :D :) If the general audience/parents receive word it’s not an enjoyable time, I agree with your forecast, yet I will add it’s generalized – so, less than $100M opening weekend. If they do not find out, then ~$150M.
I’ve debated making it public, but I think for now I’m going to hold it close to the vest. We’ll see if it continues to be accurate in a post-pandemic world (let’s hope at least).
$128.5M is the early domestic estimate. For a movie that’s decidedly *not* a four quadrant movie, I’m sure Warner Bros is quite happy with opening weekend results. Given it’s available on HBO in 45-days, even with no competition over the next 3 weeks, it’s not going to gross over $1B. That’s not an indictment in this post-Covid world.
I think they have to be absolutely ecstatic. It’s a huge win for everyone, including theaters.