Disney and Lucasfilm’s The Mandalorian and Grogu appears headed for yet another disastrous weekend at the box office, with new industry tracking suggesting the film could fall another 63% in its third frame and finish the weekend with just $9 million domestically.
The projection comes from industry tracking account Exhibitor Relations Co., which posted on X that the film is looking at a third-weekend haul of approximately $9 million, bringing its domestic total to around $155 million.
This is not the way.
MANDO & GROGU will drop another -63% with just $9M in its third week, $155M total. pic.twitter.com/IAqqpYQq0b
— Exhibitor Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) June 6, 2026
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If those numbers hold, it would mark yet another brutal chapter in what has quickly become one of the most disappointing theatrical runs in modern Star Wars history.
A Historic Low Point for Disney Star Wars
The warning signs were there from the beginning.
Despite being the franchise’s first theatrical release in seven years, The Mandalorian and Grogu opened with the lowest debut of any Disney-era Star Wars film. The movie earned approximately $82 million over its three-day opening weekend and $97 million across the four-day Memorial Day frame, finishing below Solo: A Star Wars Story and far below the heights once associated with the franchise.
That weak opening immediately put pressure on the film’s legs. For a movie reportedly carrying a production budget of roughly $165 million before marketing costs, Disney needed strong audience retention to have any hope of generating a meaningful theatrical run.
Instead, the opposite happened.
Second Weekend Collapse Raised Red Flags
The film’s second weekend delivered a devastating 69% drop, falling to roughly $25 million domestically. Industry observers immediately began comparing the decline to some of the worst second-weekend performances in franchise history.
At the same time, two low-budget horror films completely stole the spotlight.
Grogu eating a cookie – Star Wars, YouTube
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Backrooms, produced for a fraction of Disney’s budget, exploded into theaters with more than $81 million domestically, while Obsession continued its remarkable run and actually increased from previous weekends. Both films pushed The Mandalorian and Grogu down the rankings and fueled growing discussion about audience fatigue with major franchise releases.
The situation only became more embarrassing as the week progressed.
Horror Movies and New Releases Keep Pushing Star Wars Down the Charts
Heading into its third weekend, The Mandalorian and Grogu found itself battling not only holdovers like Backrooms and Obsession, but also new releases such as Masters of the Universe and Scary Movie 6.
Friday numbers paint a grim picture. According to industry reporting, Masters of the Universe led the box office with roughly $11.75 million on Friday, while The Mandalorian and Grogu managed just $2.5 million, finishing behind multiple competitors.
Fight sequence in The Mandalorian and Grogu trailer – Star Wars, YouTube
That daily performance aligns closely with the projected $9 million weekend being circulated by Exhibitor Relations Co.
Should the film land in that range, it would represent another steep decline and further cement the movie’s status as Disney’s weakest-performing Star Wars theatrical release.
The Bigger Problem for Lucasfilm
The larger issue facing Lucasfilm isn’t simply that The Mandalorian and Grogu underperformed.
It’s that the movie was supposed to be the franchise’s safe bet.
Unlike previous theatrical releases built around new characters, Disney was bringing back Din Djarin and Grogu, arguably the two most recognizable Star Wars characters introduced since the Disney acquisition. The studio also leveraged years of Disney+ success and extensive merchandising built around Grogu’s popularity.
A screencap from The Mandalorian and Grogu – YouTube, Star Wars
Yet even with those advantages, the film failed to generate the kind of event-level excitement that once defined a new Star Wars release.
Instead, original films like Backrooms and Obsession captured audience attention, while The Mandalorian and Grogu continued sliding down the chart.
If the projected $9 million third weekend becomes reality, Disney and Lucasfilm will be forced to confront an uncomfortable question: if even Grogu can’t bring audiences back to theaters in large numbers, what exactly is the future of theatrical Star Wars?
Are you surprised by this Mandalorian and Grogu box office collapse? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
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