According to The Hollywood Reporter, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is on track to earn between $160 and $200 million in its opening domestic weekend. That projection comes from a $36 million domestic Thursday preview:
Marvel Studios and Disney’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness earned a sizeable $36 million in Thursday evening previews at the North American box office to score the eighth best preview gross ever behind Avengers: Infinity War in 2018, not adjusted for inflation. That includes $4.3 million from Imax, its fifth biggest preview number ever.
The key here is the “not adjusted for inflation” statement in that quote. You may have noticed that theater prices have gone up dramatically since the pandemic and so it seems that comparing Doctor Strange to more recent films. Here’s how it looks:
Spider-Man No Way Home – $50 Million
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness – $36 Million
The Batman – $22 Million
So understanding that Spider-Man No Way Home had legs like you can’t believe, it’s probably not a direct correlation that Doctor Strange will get the same percent decrease from SMNWH over its full box office run. However, 65% of Spider-Man’s domestic total looks like a possibility. Spidey landed at $804,617,952 for its domestic run. If we assume Doctor Strange does a strong 65% of Spider-Man’s hold (it’s currently at 73% but the reviews are much poorer which could lead to a quicker drop), Doctor Strange would just barely top $523 million in North America. That’s clearly on the path we’ve discussed before which is a $1 billion to $1.2 billion global box office. It’s nothing to sneeze at, but it’s also not where it could have been if this movie had been well-received.
Of course, it could do better or worse… though worse is the more likely option given upcoming competition and audience scores. Remember, this movie is almost certain to make a profit but it also has a huge number to reach before it does so. Due to delays and reshoots, an original $200 million budget has reportedly ballooned… and Disney went all-out in marketing for this one. You could potentially be looking at a $400 million total investment, which would require $800 million in box office sales (due to theaters and taxes getting a cut) for it to break even. ScreenRant messed up their calculations by not considering marketing, but the general idea is there.
So generously let’s say it needs $750 million to make a profit. Can it get there? You bet. And if so, it’s the first Disney-produced Marvel film to make some money since Avenger’s Endgame.
So have you seen Doctor Strange 2? Do you think it’s going to do better or worse than our projections? Let us know in the comments below. As always, That Park Place is your place for everything that should be fun!
Will it have Last Jedi effect? Watch for second weekend dropoff.
I would concur with those numbers. $750M is the profit threshold I had in mind. Remember that Spider Man No Way Home spent somewhere around $240M on global marketing according to Hollywood trade pubs
Holy cow – that marketing budget is even higher than I anticipated!
More important than the movie making profit will be if the stockholders think it is a success. Marvel can’t keep making “break even” or “lost money” movies. The stock price will crater. One of the reasons for the reshoots and the heavy marketing. It would be better for Disney to lose money yet break a billion in box office. Kind of like how stock splits help to sell a stock. “A Billion” is a notable number.