The warning signs surrounding the Supergirl box office opening continue to pile up.
Less than a week before the film arrives in theaters, new box office tracking suggests Warner Bros. could face an even worse opening weekend than previously expected. Analysts are now openly discussing a $39 million debut as a realistic downside scenario.
For a film carrying the Supergirl name and serving as DC Studios’ biggest theatrical release of the year, that’s not the kind of conversation executives want to have just days before release.
Tracking Has Moved in One Direction
The most concerning part of the latest Supergirl box office update isn’t necessarily the $39 million figure itself. It’s the trend.
When early projections first emerged, Supergirl was expected to open comfortably north of $55 million domestically. Since then, virtually every major update has moved downward.
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Tracking eventually slipped into the $45 million to $55 million range. More recently, some forecasts suggested numbers closer to $51 million. Now analysts are discussing the possibility that the film could land closer to $39 million if audience demand fails to materialize.
That represents a significant decline in a relatively short period of time.
While final projections remain fluid until opening weekend arrives, the overall direction has been impossible to ignore.
The Marvels Comparisons Are Becoming Increasingly Uncomfortable
One of the more troubling comparisons for Warner Bros. involves Marvel Studios’ The Marvels.
That film opened to approximately $47 million domestically and quickly became one of the most infamous box office disappointments in modern superhero movie history. The opening weekend generated headlines across the entertainment industry and fueled discussions about superhero fatigue, audience disengagement, and the growing disconnect between studios and moviegoers.
Teyonah Parris as Captain Monica Rambeau in Marvel Studios’ THE MARVELS. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2023 MARVEL.
If Supergirl were to land near the low end of current projections, it could potentially open below The Marvels.
That doesn’t guarantee a similar outcome, but it does highlight how dramatically expectations have shifted over the past several weeks.
Warner Bros. Faces Questions After Superman’s Financial Struggles
The timing of these declining projections is particularly noteworthy because Warner Bros. is still dealing with the fallout from Superman.
While DC Studios and its supporters celebrated the film’s theatrical run, questions about its financial performance have continued to follow the project. Those concerns received fresh attention when Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos reportedly referenced Superman as a money-losing film while under oath during proceedings related to Warner Bros. Discovery.
That claim reinforced what many industry observers have argued for months: even if Superman generated respectable ticket sales, its massive production and marketing costs made profitability far more difficult than headline box office totals suggested.
Superman in the trailer for James Gunn’s Superman – YouTube, DC
That reality puts additional pressure on Supergirl.
Warner Bros. and DC Studios have spent years promising that the new DCU under James Gunn and Peter Safran would revitalize the brand. Instead, the studio now finds itself facing another round of difficult questions as Supergirl tracking continues to slide closer to levels associated with recent superhero disappointments.
The situation becomes even more concerning when considering that Supergirl was expected to build upon the foundation established by Superman. Instead of seeing momentum grow, Warner Bros. is watching projections move steadily in the opposite direction.
Supergirl using Heat Vision in the Supergirl trailer – YouTube, DC
The film has also generated multiple rounds of controversy throughout its promotional campaign. Star Milly Alcock has repeatedly found herself at the center of headlines discussing the character’s politics, sexuality, and relationship with fans. Whether those comments have directly affected ticket sales is impossible to quantify, but they have undeniably shifted attention away from the movie itself.
For Warner Bros., the larger concern is simple: if Superman failed to deliver the financial victory the studio needed, and Supergirl opens near the low end of current projections, questions about the long-term health of the DCU are only going to grow louder.
Toy Story 5 Could Make Matters Worse
Compounding the challenge is the arrival of Disney and Pixar’s Toy Story 5.
The sequel is tracking for one of the biggest openings of the year and has already demonstrated massive audience interest through its preview performance. If those projections hold, Toy Story 5 could dominate the box office while Supergirl attempts to establish itself one week later.
Buzz and Woody in Toy Story 5 – IMAX, YouTube
Some analysts have even raised the possibility that Supergirl could face a battle to win its own opening weekend depending on how strongly Toy Story 5 performs during its second frame.
That scenario would have been difficult to imagine when the first tracking numbers emerged months ago.
The Next Few Days Will Be Critical
The most important numbers have yet to arrive.
Industry trades typically release their final projections closer to opening weekend, and those updates will reveal whether analysts still believe Supergirl can outperform the recent downward trend.
For now, however, the story remains unchanged.
The discussion surrounding Supergirl is no longer focused on whether the film can become a breakout hit. Instead, attention has shifted toward how low the opening weekend could ultimately fall and whether Warner Bros. can avoid another disappointing start for a major superhero release.
With release day rapidly approaching, the Supergirl box office picture appears far less certain than DC Studios would have hoped.
How do you feel about the Supergirl box office projections? Sound off and let us know!
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