According to Deadline, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is headed for a $190 million dollar opening domestic weekend. That’s a fine start, though analysts are honest that Mother’s Day is difficult to predict. Disney itself is thinking this might be closer to $180 million. Even if it breaks the $200 million mark for the start, there’s big time trouble ahead.
Industry estimates see Disney/Marvel’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madnesscoming in with an estimated $58.75M Saturday, which is 35% off from the pic’s opening day of $90M. Many believe that the sequel’s opening is between $190M-$194M. That’s a great kickoff to summer and the best opening for a Disney movie during the pandemic. With that range, Doctor Strange 2will land between the 9th to 11th biggest domestic opening of all-time.
The problem is that though Doctor Strange has its supporters, the hard truth is the movie has a very low CinemaScore for a Marvel movie. That likely means it’s not as well as received by audiences as Rotten Tomatoes might try to relay. In fact, the only Marvel movie to ever have a lower CinemaScore is the original Thor movie. What’s very interesting is that outside of the Rotten Tomatoes audiences score, which strongly appears to either be a fluke or manipulated, the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score as well as both MetaCritic scores for Thor line up almost perfectly with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.
If we look at how Thor performed at the box office as a comparison, Thor hit the bottom-third of its projected possible futures after the first weekend. If Doctor Strange does the same, we’re looking at a 2.48 multiplier for the rest of its run. That would see Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness finish with only about $475 million. That’s probably enough to get Marvel’s latest film over the billion mark in global revenues, but it could be close given that China is out of picture. If we assume that it performs more like Age of Ultron, it actually could be worse.
But a reminder: we’re talking about the future. Nobody knows truly what is going to happen. What we do know is there are some parallels with this film that give us an idea of where it’s heading. What is more interesting to me is how it will affect future Marvel films. Does a very low CinemaScore harm the audience’s excitement for Thor Love and Thunder? That’s a big-time question for everyone at Disney and Marvel.
For all the latest news that should be fun, keep reading That Park Place! As always, drop a comment down below and let us know your thoughts.
I saw Dr. Strange at a discount theater. I always have to see a move at least twice to see if I like it. But with the Marvel movies lately, because of the political & liberal stuff they’ve been putting in the movies…I haven’t really wanted to watch them twice. Even if the move was so-so like I think Dr. Strange was. The Miss American character wasn’t interesting enough for me to care about her. And I’m kinda tired of every hero in a Marvel movie all being so flippant/cracking jokes. Takes away from the heroism, IMO.
I haven’t seen Dr. Strange 2 yet so no judgement on the film, but a strong opening for a film that hasn’t gotten amazing reviews should dispel some of the “Disney Boycott” reporting. As pointed out here, it might not have legs based on the audience score.
I doubt the film has any effect on whatever the next Marvel film is coming. Marvel has been doing this for years. People who like Thor aren’t going to stop liking Thor because of Dr. Strange.
You really need to read more of our articles with comprehensive effort.
From April 26th on That Park Place:
“For anyone thinking that Doctor Strange is the movie that will see Disney boycotts take effect, consider that it is very unlikely. Still, it’s almost certain that media outlets will run with headlines and articles saying Doctor Strange is proof the pushback against Disney is a tiny and very vocal minority. Just as that is untrue today, it will still be untrue then. One only needs to look at reception of Moon Knight and The Book of Boba Fett in order to see that enthusiasm for Disney across-the-board is beginning to wane. It’s too soon to forget that Disney declared Turning Red as a huge hit on Disney+ only for us to discover that it was pulling numbers far below Encanto… even though Encanto had already played in theaters whereas Turning Red was a brand-new feature length film.
Looking for Doctor Strange to come in lower than expectations is a fool’s errand. It might happen but it probably won’t be because of any boycott or backlash. The demographic that turns out for Marvel movies, especially on opening weekends, is not the sort of crowd that might boycott easily. Marvel fans have proven to create huge openers, even if that trails off later on. Additionally, Marvel movies skew towards a teenage and young adult audience: the least likely group to boycott Disney for family cultural issues. If you’re wanting to see signs of a Disney backlash at the box office, Lightyear and Thor 4 are where you need to look (for reasons we can discuss in another article).”
http://thatparkplace.com/marvel-releases-new-doctor-strange-trailer-as-box-office-predictions-begin/
You literally proved Manu right.
If you’re looking for boycott numbers it’ll be in subscriptions. It won’t be how a single piece of entertainment is received. So citing Obi-Wan or Moon Knight’s reception isn’t really logical.
Umm…
Obi-Wan Kenobi and Moon Knight are both dependent on subscribers, thus providing objective trend lines if you follow the Nielsen ratings. We won’t know D+ hard shifts from a boycott until August otherwise.