The entertainment world is shocked once more as Thor: Love and Thunder may actually be a flop at the box office. That’s two in a row for Disney.
Estimates for the drop of Thor: Love and Thunder in its second weekend were already low. Today, they’re going lower as the movie is failing to meet expectations.
Some industry projections have “Love and Thunder” netting $45 million from 4,375 locations in its second weekend, falling below initial estimates for a sophomore haul north of $55 million. The film should expand its domestic gross beyond $230 million through the weekend, already marking it as the sixth highest grossing domestic release of 2022 so far. Even considering the slight underperformance, those numbers are nothing to sneeze at.
— J. Kim Murphy, Variety
And though some are trying to compare this drop to both Spider-Man: No Way Home and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Spidey’s second weekend was Christmas… an unfair comparison. Whereas the three Spider-Men had fantastic legs at the box office, Doctor Strange saw a tumble that few Marvel movies in the modern era had ever seen before. Thor: Love and Thunder may be heading in that direction or worse.
Thor 4 second weekend might actually come in BELOW Minions second weekend. Let that sink in. The fact that we are even having that discussion is absurd
— Valliant Renegade (@ValliantRenegad) July 16, 2022
80% second friday drop tracks right along with Strange 2. This movie is headed to about a 2.25x domestic finish and maybe a 2.1x global. Thor 4 opening wkd was only 25% or so behind DS2 domestically, but 50% behind DS2 internationally. This could get really ugly, quick.
— Valliant Renegade (@ValliantRenegad) July 16, 2022
The current trajectory for Thor: Love and Thunder has it on track to potentially lose money. If so, it would be two films in a row for Disney that have flopped, and three in a row for 2022 that have significantly underperformed at the box office. To understand the potential for the movie to flop, check out this prior analysis from That Park Place and Valliant Renegade:
Given the financial trends, I think (with some generosity) Thor Love and Thunder will finish near a $325M domestic run and $650-700M global cume. The problem of course is that Thor 4 needs about $800M globally to break even, and that break even comes from a detailed financial analysis of SEC 10Ks (Annual Financial Report form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission from Tax Years 2019 – 2021) from the two largest theatrical exhibitioners AMC and Cinemark/Regal.
Only one company seems to be struggling with turning a profit at the box office under the rising movie ticket prices of 2022’s inflation. Whether that constitutes a “Disney backlash” or a “wrong direction” is up for you, the reader, to decide.
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