The early signs for Ant-Man’s future box office tracking are now coming in. The folks at Marvel and Disney should be very, very worried for their first Phase Five film.
We’ve been calling it the Phase Five Dive. It may already be happening at the box office. While we’re not yet to the second weekend, Antman’s box office collapse may already be under way. Comparing it to Thor: Love and Thunder reveals a very different launch. And considering that Thor 4 saw a massive 68% drop from the first weekend to the second, Quantumania is in real, real trouble here.
First, let’s take a look at Thor: Love and Thunder’s opening six days.
| Date | Rank | Gross | %YD | %LW | Theaters | Per Theater | Total Gross | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2022 | P | $29,000,000 | 0 | $29,000,000 | ||||
| Jul 8, 2022 | 1 | $69,554,073 | 4,375 | $15,898 | $69,554,073 | 1 | ||
| Jul 9, 2022 | 1 | $42,112,494 | -39% | 4,375 | $9,626 | $111,666,567 | 2 | |
| Jul 10, 2022 | 1 | $32,498,540 | -23% | 4,375 | $7,428 | $144,165,107 | 3 | |
| Jul 11, 2022 | 1 | $12,182,506 | -63% | 4,375 | $2,785 | $156,347,613 | 4 | |
| Jul 12, 2022 | 1 | $13,655,428 | +12% | 4,375 | $3,121 | $170,003,041 | 5 | |
| Jul 13, 2022 | 1 | $8,929,256 | -35% | 4,375 | $2,041 | $178,932,297 | 6 |
Now let’s take a look at Quantumania’s first six days.
| Date | Rank | Gross | % Change | Theaters | Per Theater | Total Gross | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2023 | P | $17,500,000 | 0 | $17,500,000 | |||
| Feb 17, 2023 | 1 | $46,431,851 | 4,345 | $10,686 | $46,431,851 | 1 | |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | $33,903,657 | -27% | 4,345 | $7,803 | $80,335,508 | 2 |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | $25,774,142 | -24% | 4,345 | $5,932 | $106,109,650 | 3 |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 1 | $14,284,967 | -45% | 4,345 | $3,288 | $120,394,617 | 4 |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | $7,078,521 | -50% | 4,345 | $1,629 | $127,473,138 | 5 |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 1 | $3,859,533 | -45% | 4,345 | $888 | $131,332,671 | 6 |
In its first two days at the box office, Thor: Love and Thunder made almost $100M with a grand total of $98,554,073. By its sixth day, Thor 4 was holding 9% of its original two-days. However, when it comes to Antman 3, the film is only holding 6% on the sixth day of its first two days. Considering Thor had such a steep drop from the first weekend to the second weekend, and yet Antman 3 is seeing a first week hold that is only two-thirds of what Thor 4 did… you can see how there’s doom and gloom sinking into Marvel.
What will happen ultimately is up to potential movie patrons. But for now, it’s not looking good — not at all.
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