By the time The Mandalorian and Grogu hits theaters this May, it will have been nearly seven years since there was a Star Wars film on the big screen. Many observers might expect some degree of anticipation. However, a recent survey of moviegoers suggests that interest in the upcoming film is surprisingly muted.
Grogu from The Mandalorian and Grogu trailer – Star Wars, YouTube
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Even in a highly competitive box office season, a new Star Wars movie would once have been an expected cultural event. That assumption no longer feels automatic. After three feature films that each earned less than the one before, and a series of television projects that have struggled to consistently capture a broad audience, even “Baby Yoda” may not be enough to sell tickets on name recognition alone.
Survey Results Reveal Viewer Interest Gaps
Online movie ticketing service Fandango conducted its annual Moviegoing Trends & Insights Study ahead of CinemaCon. The top 10 results, ranked from most to least anticipated, are revealing.
- Toy Story 5 (Disney)
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)
- The Devil Wears Prada 2 (Disney/20th Century Studios)
- The Odyssey (Universal)
- Scary Movie (2026) (Paramount)
- Moana (2026) (Disney)
- Minions & Monsters (Universal)
- Mortal Kombat II (Warner)
- Supergirl (Warner)
- Insidious: The Bleeding World (Sony/Blumhouse)
Much has been made of the fact that Supergirl—which has its own set of controversies—is scoring so low. Yet even more surprising is that The Mandalorian and Grogu didn’t even make the cut. More than 7,000 adults ages 18 to 70 participated in the survey, with over 5,000 of them classified as “moviegoers,” meaning they had seen one or more films in theaters over the past year.
Supergirl using Heat Vision in the Supergirl trailer – YouTube, DC
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While the sample size of the survey is admittedly limited, the data suggests that The Mandalorian and Grogu may struggle to draw audiences into theaters. The knowledge that the film will likely be available on Disney+ before the end of the year may also be a contributing factor. That lack of urgency—or interest—for a Star Wars film could point to a broader sense of apathy.
The Mandalorian’s Theatrical Challenge
The Mandalorian and Grogu is the continuation of a series that originally launched on Disney+. Viewership had already begun to decline by the end of the third season, as some fans grew frustrated with certain creative decisions and the overall tone. Director Jon Favreau has assured fans that the film is not a collection of reused ideas for a potential fourth season of The Mandalorian.
Yet as the Star Wars brand as a whole has struggled, this latest survey suggests that The Mandalorian and Grogu may not be immune. Recent marketing may have only complicated matters. A Super Bowl trailer that leaned on a joke rather than spectacle was widely regarded as a costly misstep.
A screenshot from The Mandalorian and Grogu Super Bowl spot – Lucasfilm
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A little over a week later, on February 17, Disney released a trailer that offered an actual look at the story. At the time of writing, it has approximately 11 million views on YouTube. In comparison, the Supergirl trailer, which has been on YouTube for just over a week, has around 25 million views.
A Familiar Brand, an Uncertain Response
A single survey and lower-than-expected YouTube views for the trailer don’t guarantee that The Mandalorian and Grogu will be a box office disappointment. Strong word of mouth could still shift momentum and turn the film into a sleeper hit of the summer.
But the fact that those terms are even being applied to a Star Wars property is, in itself, notable.
Are you surprised by the survey results? Let us know in the comments!
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