The legacy media called it a $100 million opening weekend, and despite their sneaky use of five-days to count as a “first weekend”, we’re holding them to it. As a result, Captain America: Brave New World is on track for one of the steepest second-weekend drops in the history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). Projections indicate that the film will plummet around 70% in domestic earnings, bringing in just over $30 million in its sophomore frame. If this trajectory holds, its worldwide haul for the second weekend will struggle to surpass $50 million, putting its long-term prospects in jeopardy. Should the film fail to reach the crucial $400 million global benchmark as it winds down its theatrical window, it will go down as one of Marvel Studios‘ biggest misfires and an outright embarrassment for the once-unshakable franchise.
Anthony Mackie as Sam Wilson/Captain America in Marvel Studios’ CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD. Photo by Eli Adé. © 2024 MARVEL.
The projected 70% drop is among the worst declines ever for an MCU film, placing Brave New World in the same company as The Marvels (-78%) and possibly Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (-70%). The latter struggled to sustain momentum after its opening weekend, ultimately failing to turn a significant profit, and Brave New World now appears to be headed down a similar path. While high second-weekend drop-offs have become more common in the post-pandemic era, the magnitude of this decline signals deeper concerns for the film and the broader MCU brand.
Even when excluding the additional day from the Presidents’ Day holiday weekend, the film’s adjusted three-day debut of $88 million would still result in a troubling 66% drop. That kind of decline typically indicates weak word-of-mouth, a lack of repeat viewings, or a general loss of audience interest—none of which bode well for the film’s overall run. Again, 66% puts it in the lowest of the low MCU company. Perhaps even worse… Brave New World is performing better domestically than internationally. Whoa.
‘CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD’ opens to $192.4M at the worldwide box office pic.twitter.com/woda6AagG9
— ScreenTime (@screentime) February 16, 2025
For context, its predecessor, Captain America: Civil War (2016), made $1.15 billion worldwide, while The Winter Soldier (2014) and The First Avenger (2011) grossed $714 million and $370 million, respectively. For a mainline Captain America film to underperform so significantly would signal serious brand fatigue. Adjusted for inflation (and especially adjusted for the increased price of movie tickets), the returns for the newest Cap film is horrific.
Several factors have contributed to the film’s underwhelming box office performance. The most immediate issue appears to be its mixed reception. Critics have been lukewarm at best, with the film holding a 50% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, one of the lowest scores in MCU history. While the audience score is more favorable at 80%, that hasn’t been enough to offset concerns over the film’s quality. Additionally, seeming efforts from legacy media to present the film as a gigantic success in its first weekend, despite performing around the level of The Eternals, appears to have had no positive impact and may have wiped out (even further) confidence in legacy media and access media analysts.
‘CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD’ has already grossed over $204M at the worldwide box office.
The film has a budget of $180M. pic.twitter.com/73DRPjX1HR
— Cosmic Marvel (@cosmic_marvel) February 19, 2025
And if you believe Disney spent $180M on this movie in total, it’s time to get out of the job of reporting on movie financials.
Adding to the problem is the film’s B- CinemaScore, which historically signals poor word-of-mouth and weak legs at the box office. For comparison, Eternals and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, both of which received similar scores, experienced massive drop-offs after their respective openings and failed to gain traction in subsequent weeks.
Another major factor is the film’s troubled production. Reports of extensive reshoots and last-minute edits have plagued Brave New World, with Marvel Studios making significant changes well into post-production. The decision to remove several characters, including members of the Serpent Society, and alter key sequences (including the post-credits scene) may have contributed to a disjointed final product. While reshoots are common in big-budget filmmaking, the scale and frequency of changes to Brave New World suggest a lack of confidence in the film’s direction.
Captain America/Sam Wilson (Anthony Mackie) in Marvel Studios’ CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD, exclusively on Disney+. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2024 MARVEL.
The MCU is no longer the unstoppable box office juggernaut it once was. While major titles like Avengers: Endgame ($2.79 billion) and Spider-Man: No Way Home ($1.92 billion) cemented Marvel’s dominance, recent years have seen diminishing returns. The franchise has suffered from an oversaturated release schedule, declining audience engagement, and an overreliance on interconnected storytelling that often prioritizes setup over standalone narratives.
Brave New World was supposed to reinvigorate the Captain America brand with Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson fully stepping into the iconic role. Instead, its steep second-weekend drop and lukewarm reception suggest that audiences aren’t connecting with the film as Marvel had hoped. If the film continues its downward trajectory, it could force the studio to rethink its approach to future projects. The MCU’s recent struggles raise pressing questions about its long-term viability and whether the franchise can recapture the magic that once made it the gold standard of blockbuster filmmaking. For now, Brave New World stands as a cautionary tale of a cinematic universe in crisis.
With Thunderbolts and Fantastic Four on the upcoming slate for 2025, things could get very, very ugly.
