“Captain America: Brave New World” has emerged as one of Marvel Studios’ most underperforming films, marked by significant box office declines and a tepid global reception. Despite an initial domestic opening of $88.5 million over the three-day weekend and almost exactly$100 million across the four-day Presidents’ Day weekend (including Thursday previews as well), the film experienced a sharp 68% drop in its second weekend according to projections, earning only $28.1 million. However, the 82% drop from first Friday to second Friday signals that the projections could be rosy and this film could be much worse than analysts are giving it credit.
Historically, the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) has maintained robust box office performances, with films typically experiencing moderate second-weekend declines. For instance, “Black Panther” saw a mere 44.7% drop, while “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” and “Avengers: Infinity War” each had a 55.5% decline.
‘CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD’ has earned $7.2M yesterday at the domestic box office.
It is an 82.4% drop from the film’s domestic opening day. pic.twitter.com/iL8FHyrWT1
— Cosmic Marvel (@cosmic_marvel) February 22, 2025
In contrast, the steep (minimum) 68% fall of “Brave New World” places it among the MCU’s poorest performers in terms of audience retention.
Several factors contribute to this underperformance. The film received mixed reviews, with a 49% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes and an average rating of 5.5/10. Critics noted that while Anthony Mackie capably assumes the mantle of Captain America, the film is “too routine and overstuffed with uninteresting easter eggs to feel like a worthy standalone adventure.”
Additionally, audiences polled by CinemaScore awarded the film a “B–,” the lowest grade for an MCU film to date.
Production challenges further exacerbated the film’s struggles. Insiders reported unenthusiastic test screenings, leading to costly reshoots and a chaotic production process. The portrayal of Harrison Ford’s character, Red Hulk, also sparked political sensitivities, prompting a title change from “New World Order” to “Brave New World.” These behind-the-scenes issues likely impacted the film’s coherence and overall quality. They also may have inflated the costs beyond the original budget. Some believe the break-even for this film could be between $800 million and $900 million.
Internationally, “Brave New World” has faced stiff competition, particularly from China’s animated blockbuster “Ne Zha 2,” which has grossed over $1.8 billion worldwide, becoming the highest-grossing animated film of all time. In contrast, “Brave New World” garnered a modest $10.5 million in China during its opening weekend.
(L-R): Prime Minister Ozaki (Takehiro Hira), Captain America/Sam Wilson (Anthony Mackie), and President Thaddeus Ross (Harrison Ford) in Marvel Studios‘ CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD, exclusively on Disney+. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2024 MARVEL.
Given these challenges, projections indicate that “Brave New World” may struggle to reach even $300 million worldwide. Disney could be faced with a flop that costs them hundreds of millions of dollars and challenges films like Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny or John Carter of Mars for major historical theatrical losses.
The underperformance of “Captain America: Brave New World” serves as a critical moment for Marvel Studios, suggesting that even established franchises are not immune to audience fatigue and market competition. Marvel may have finally reached a point where its future, outside of a few well-established characters, is in serious doubt.
