It was not a great day for The Walt Disney Company when they released their Q4 Earnings Report. Analysts quickly discovered that Disney had seen dramatic and near-total collapse in subscriber growth for their Disney+ streaming service. Stock prospectors had been gung ho about Disney’s potential with the streaming platform just a few months ago, but the past quarters have seen a major shift in the number of people interested in picking up the subscription. Unfortunately for Disney, that still puts them at only half of Netflix’s subscriber base… and with little signs that they will catch up in the foreseeable future.
One funny blurb to bring to your attention: just days after Disney stock dropped due to the abysmal Disney+ numbers, a London-based company is claiming that Disney+ will overtake Netflix in subscription numbers. No data is provided to back up that claim, and the company is essentially one man: Simon Murray. This is the same man who claimed two years ago that Disney+ would hit 101 million subscribers in 2025. It did so earlier this year. Mr. Simon has an uncanny knack, it would appear, for making horrible prediction without penalty to reputation. So consider me beyond skeptical that this anything more than snake oil with a twinge of “too much coincidence”. This strikes me as something that has the feeling of an assist to a company that just saw its Disney+ numbers collapse. That said, the media is running with the story today, and if you read That Park Place you know how the narrative game works.
Disney+ will reach 126 million subscribers worldwide by 2025 and 53 percent of Netflix’s estimated 238 million then, Digital TV Research analyst Simon Murray forecast in a report. Details: https://t.co/XD1M1U2gFn
— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) February 6, 2020
Despite the random “study” that comes out with grandiose predictions for a currently stagnant streaming service, sources are telling us that Disney is deeply concerned. We’re told that CEO Bob Chapek, along with executives in the Media Networks and Television department, is pushing for Disney+ to begin featuring mature content in the United States. The reason? To try to boost those subscription numbers and keep pace with Netflix. There’s just one problem: many of the Bob Iger loyalists at Disney are reportedly against the move — staunchly. And Iger himself may be against sullying Disney+ with abrasive material.
It seems like Puck contributor, Dylan Byers, is hearing some of the same things. With Hulu having done exceedingly well while Disney+ and ESPN+ faltered, Byers is hearing that Chapek wants to move some of the mature content from Hulu and put it on the company’s flagship Disney+ service. After all, Hulu doesn’t drive stock prognosticators: Disney+ does.
This is already something that Disney is doing internationally. The Disney Star segment of Disney+ allows the company to put shows like Family Guy and movies like Deadpool to exist on the same service that shows Cinderella. It has always struck me as odd, however, that Disney chose to go with the “star” moniker. You’d think they would want to get away from that iconography after their failed attempt at adult material with Harvey Weinstein’s Miramax (see “Starz”) flamed out years ago.
https://twitter.com/ghoststarz/status/1460276413035126794
Ultimately, it’s going to be interesting to see who wins out. If Disney+ gains mature content, it’s going to be clearer that Bob Chapek has fully taken the reins of The Walt Disney Company in every way. Given that he’s a numbers guy, not a legacy or traditions acolyte, it makes sense that he would want to put risque content on the service to bolster numbers, even if it damages the overall brand with families. But if Disney+ remains as is, we’ll have a takeaway that the other Bob, Mr. Iger himself, still has some sway within the halls of Burbank.
Whatever happens, one thing is for sure: Disney is eager to change the trajectory of Disney+.
