Before we get into this one, I want to say that I’m not making any statement in this article about the quality of Hawkeye, the new series on Disney+. My understanding is that we are holding at That Park Place to do any review until the series is over because it’s only a six-episode mini-series on Disney+. It’s already halfway over. So I’m not going to harp on the show or tell you that it’s awful. I’m also not going to tell you that it’s great. I personally have only made it partially through the first episode, so I have no strong opinion.
The public, on the other hand, does seem to have an opinion…
What I am hearing now is that the third episode of Hawkeye is being projected to land somewhere between 70% and 80% of the first two episodes which debuted together. This is projection, but I’m hearing that it is not going in the direction that Marvel and The Walt Disney Company would like. Given that Disney+ has had essentially stalled subscription growth, and worse growth in the United States than in other areas (i.e. India), you’d better believe they’re keeping an eye on the success of this show. Thus far, Marvel has not had great success with any of its big releases, other than Loki. As a reminder, the original duo of Hawkeye episodes came in under Loki’s launch by 40%. Loki would go on to increase its viewership… Hawkeye appears to be dwindling.
Although not matching the 70-80% number exactly, we can also see in Google Trends that the internet buzz is matching up with the alleged projection:
Let’s compare that to the pattern we saw with Loki, again lining up with its overall performance:
Editor’s Note: We’re seeing that some browsers are not properly displaying the Loki Google Trends chart. Readers not showing the graph properly can click on the “Google Trends” logo to pull up the Loki data that is supposed to display. We apologize for the inconvenience — this appears to be an issue on Google’s side.
It’s not hard to see the difference. And what that means is that either Hawkeye is going to have to do something that draws viewers back to the series, OR it’s very likely that upper execs at The Walt Disney Company are going to need to have a conference with Kevin Feige. Care will need to be taken, however, as any studio in the world would love a shot at picking up Feige at the end of his contract. Disney wants him happy, but they also want Marvel series and Marvel movies that make them money. For Disney+ shows, that means they need to generate new subscribers — something not even Loki was able to largely accomplish. For the movies, they have to get back to profitability. Pandemic or not, Sony is making money off of Ghostbusters, a franchise that was fraught with issues to bring back, and Marvel movies are flopping at the box office. That can’t continue.
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It may take some time for people to get their heads wrapped around what is going on here. Remember, Marvel was the ultimate golden goose at cinemas all the way through 2019. Many commentators have continued to remark about how great Marvel movies are doing in the opening weekends of the ongoing pandemic… leading the public to think Marvel is still doing great. But they fail to return, often, to discuss what is happening in subsequent weeks. This is especially true when considering the budgets for Marvel films and what they need to make a profit. Not all analysts and commentators have done poorly in this regard, but many have.
Shareholders are not confused. Although Disney has seen a small bump from successful cable negotiations in the recent 48 hours, their stock is still significantly down over the past 12 months. That needs to change, and Disney+ needs subscriber growth for it to do so. Prepare for directional changes in narratives, in series, in movies, etc, in order to make that happen. Money talks to Disney.
Let us know in the comments below what you think about Hawkeye and why its ratings are low. We love to hear your thoughts, and often respond back. Our readers are some of the most knowledgeable fans of the properties they care about — so share with us your thoughts.
