James Gunn’s Superman Could Lose to Man of Steel in Opening Weekend Box Office According to Projections

Twelve years ago, Man of Steel kicked off what would eventually become the Snyderverse with a respectable $128.7 million domestic box office opening weekend for a Superman film. Now, projections for James Gunn’s rebooted Superman suggest it may not even reach that benchmark—despite having every modern advantage in its corner.

Henry Cavill as Superman in Man of Steel – HBO Max

According to new forecasting from Boxoffice Pro, Gunn’s Superman is expected to open between $115 million and $135 million. That may sound comparable to Man of Steel, but the comparison quickly falls apart under scrutiny—especially when you realize Superman could still come in below Cavill’s debut before adjusting for inflation.

The Thursday Numbers Shell Game

Boxoffice Pro’s forecast makes a critical sleight-of-hand. It claims Man of Steel opened to $116 million, and uses that figure as a baseline. But here’s the problem: that number excludes the $12 million earned from Thursday preview screenings, which were counted separately at the time.

Rahcel Brosnahan as Lois Lane in Superman – YouTube, DC

The real number, factoring in the full Thursday–Sunday launch for Man of Steel, is $128.7 million. In contrast, the $115M–$135M estimate for Gunn’s Superman already includes Thursday previews—which is now standard practice in box office forecasting and has been since 2018.

So if Superman opens at $115M, as currently projected, it’s not “right in line” with Man of Steel—it’s behind it.

Adjusted for Inflation? It’s a Blowout

Once inflation is taken into account, the gap becomes even more painful. Man of Steel’s 2013 launch equates to about $174.5 million in 2025 dollars.

Henry Cavill as Superman in Man of Steel – YouTube, Warner Bros.

So for Gunn’s Superman to truly match the performance of its predecessor in terms of butts in seats, it would need to clear that $174M bar. As it stands, the new film could come in $40–60 million short.

Could Superman Still Beat Man of Steel in Opening Weekend Box Office?

To be fair, if Superman lands at the high end of Boxoffice Pro’s forecast—around $135 million—it would technically top Man of Steel’s $128.7 million launch in raw, unadjusted dollars.

But that’s where the good news stops.

Lex Luthor in the trailer for James Gunn’s Superman – YouTube, DC

As stated before, once adjusted for inflation, Man of Steel’s debut equals about $174.5 million in 2025 dollars—putting even the rosiest Superman estimate $40 million behind. And that’s assuming the film even reaches that upper threshold. So while it might make more money in gross dollars and cents, the film would in effect play in front of fewer people than saw Man of Steel.

So while Warner Bros. and its media allies might declare victory if Superman hits $130M+, the reality is more sobering. Beating a 12-year-old number on paper isn’t the same as meeting the standard in today’s economy—especially for a film tasked with launching an entire cinematic universe.

Why That Matters: The Snyderverse Was a Failure

It’s no secret that the Snyderverse collapsed. Despite some passionate fans, the DCEU was plagued by inconsistent storytelling, messy studio interference, divisive direction, and waning audience interest. The franchise ended in a whimper with The Flash and Aquaman 2 limping across the finish line.

Ben Affleck as Batman in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016), Warner Bros.

If James Gunn’s clean-slate, feel-good, critically praised, heavily marketed Superman reboot can’t outdo the debut of a film that launched a failed cinematic universe, that’s not just ironic. It’s a flashing red warning sign.

Context: Superman’s Rocky Road

Here’s how other modern Superman films stack up in terms of opening weekend box office not adjusted for inflation:

• Batman v Superman (2016): $166M opening
• Man of Steel (2013): $128.7M launch (with Thursday previews)
• Justice League (2017): $93.8M opening
• Superman Returns (2006): $52.5M opening

David Corenswet as Superman flying in James Gunn’s “Superman” – YouTube, DC

Only Justice League and Superman Returns opened lower, and both came with serious baggage. Justice League was a Frankenstein of two directors and behind-the-scenes chaos. Superman Returns was a nostalgia piece sequel to a movie that didn’t exist yet (The Richard Donner cut of Superman 2) that never resonated.

Gunn’s Superman, on the other hand, is being billed as the start of something bold and new—and yet it might struggle to crack even $120 million.

Jurassic World Rebirth Shows the Upside—Could Superman Do the Same?

Recently, Jurassic World Rebirth exceeded projections and opened to strong numbers.

• Domestic 3-day: $91.5 million
• 5-day (holiday weekend): $147.3 million
• Global debut: $318.3 million

These figures slightly surpassed pre-release forecasts, which had pegged its domestic haul between $100M–$120M (3-day) and around $260M globally. This strong over-performance is a solid reminder that tentpole films can still surprise.

A pair of raptors in Jurassic World Dominion – YouTube, Universal Pictures

So Could Superman Do the Same?

Absolutely. And if word of mouth, marketing, or even surprise Thursday performance gives it an extra boost, it could edge further ahead—mirroring Jurassic World’s unexpected climb.

Final Thought

James Gunn’s Superman may have a cape, a smile, and a Rotten Tomatoes score in the 80s. But box office projections don’t run on hope. They run on demand.

Superman withstands fire in the trailer for James Gunn’s Superman – YouTube, DC

Failing to match Man of Steel—the foundation of the Snyderverse, a saga most fans and critics agree failed—isn’t just a footnote. It’s a red flag.

What do you think Superman will make for it’s opening box office? Sound off in the comments and let us know!

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