Lightyear Dubbed “Flopyear” — The Second Weekend May Be Worse

By Published On: June 24, 2022

Lightyear Dubbed “Flopyear” — The Second Weekend May Be Worse

By Published On: June 24, 2022

Things are not going well for Pixar at the box office. And for the most part, after being seriously vocal through backchannels to publications, the studio is now essentially silent. Lightyear is heading towards one of the worst flops in all of Disney’s history at breakneck speed. Really — the movie is actually performing worse than we had anticipated in terms of dropping from its already poor first weekend.

Just look at that paltry number. Lightyear dropped 27% from Tuesday to Wednesday without any new movie or preview coming out on the Wednesday. One day… 27%. There is no reason for the movie to drop like that going towards its second weekend except that it is being roundly rejected by audiences. At this rate, the movie may literally not reach $200 million in gross worldwide sales. That is something which is so hard to believe could be real given that this was a film projected originally to top a billion dollars across the globe.

And though Disney has been largely silent about the movie, there are some industry and “insider” leaks starting to happen which are, unsurprisingly, quite negative about the reality of the world. Still, I’m not sure how many of us would expect for Hollywood analysts to blame parents for wanting to screen material before their children watches it. Isn’t that called good parenting?

We should additionally consider unfortunate pushback over the film’s same-gender relationship from ultra-conversative families, who have also been educated for two years to expect Pixar movies on streaming sooner rather than later,” says Robbins, referencing Disney’s decision to send multiple Pixar titles to Disney+ since the pandemic“The combination of those two sentiments seem to have instilled a ‘We’ll watch it before letting our kids see it’ mentality in some communities, particularly those with strict religious views, in contrast to the filmmakers’ intentions of championing equality and representation for everyone.”

— Shawn Robbins, Box Office Pro, Statements Given to THR

 

Darn those strict religious families for wanting to know what’s in their kids’ movies before letting them see it! Darn those ultra-conservatives for not wanting to explain how two moms can get pregnant to a seven-year-old.

Hopefully you can see the lunacy in the above two statements. Trust me, they’re sarcastic. But Robbins is funnily missing the fact that if it’s just “ultra-conservative” and “strict religious” families staying away, they must be seriously underrepresented in polling because they clearly make up the majority of the world!

There’s another quote from that article by Pamela McClintock that I really enjoy. Look at this and see if you can spot the spin:

Lightyear also under-indexed in the Northeast, where many locales are Democratic-leaning, as well as in Canada. It overperformed in the West and in the Southeast, including in many Hispanic-led markets. (Hispanics made up more than 30 percent of the audience.)

So the effort in this quote is to make it seem like different parts of the country came to see Lightyear in different percentages and thereby it proves the lesbian couple the movie revolves around were not a factor in the film bombing (they want it both ways). There’s just one huge problem. No, it didn’t overperform in the west and the southeast. It didn’t overperform anywhere. You can’t flop this badly and overperform anywhere. Instead, what they’re trying to do is use comparative statistics for a movie that did abysmal numbers. But it doesn’t work that way. Who cares if it did better as a percentage in the west versus the northeast? If the gross numbers are already in the toilet, the whole thing is a flush.

And as for the reasons… you don’t crash this hard without making a ton of errors. That certainly includes a backlash to Disney, making families have to do “the talk” with little kids by watching this, Turning Red giving families hesitancy, removing Tim Allen, a crappy premise, even worse marketing, less-than-average reception, and on and on and on.

We could be wrong though. Lightyear may have a resurgence and families may decide to go support this very “inclusive” piece of media as a way to affirm their love of pride and all things culturally momentous. That’s a future which could absolutely happen. But if the decline in sales from day-to-day over the beginning of this week are any sort of indicator, Lightyear may be heading for a greater than 55% drop from already very poor starting numbers. Usually films that open very low don’t drop that much because it’s just harder to drop significantly when you don’t have all that far to go. If Lightyear pulls it off, this is one movie that the market told loud and clear to “buzz off.”

Sorry Pixar. Maybe you’ve lost your mojo.

For all the latest news that should be fun, keep reading That Park Place. As always, drop a comment down below and tell us what we got right and what we got wrong.

About the Author: WDW Pro
Avatar photo
WDW Pro is an opinionated commentator on all things Disney and Entertainment. First becoming well-known on WDWMagic.com, the author was brought on to work at Pirates and Princesses. Pro has previously released exclusive details on a variety of rumors and leaks before they were made public. Some exclusives have included breaking info on new Epcot attractions, detailing the light saber experience at the Star Wars hotel, reporting a Harrison Ford injury severity before anyone else, revealing Hugh Jackman was coming to the MCU, Storm would be linked with Wakanda and more. WDW Pro has written articles viewed by millions of readers while maintaining an 87% accuracy rating for revealing "insider" information in 2020. In 2021, the author had a better than 90% accuracy on reported leaks and rumors. Pro joined That Park Place on June 22nd, 2021. The author's accolades include being featured on The Daily Wire, cited by Timcast, numerous references by YouTube personalities, as well as having material tweeted by Dr. Jordan Peterson. WDW Pro is honored, and grateful, while hoping to make the world a better place. In 2023, a third party audit found Pro's accuracy for rumors and scoops to be 92.5%.

Things are not going well for Pixar at the box office. And for the most part, after being seriously vocal through backchannels to publications, the studio is now essentially silent. Lightyear is heading towards one of the worst flops in all of Disney’s history at breakneck speed. Really — the movie is actually performing worse than we had anticipated in terms of dropping from its already poor first weekend.

Just look at that paltry number. Lightyear dropped 27% from Tuesday to Wednesday without any new movie or preview coming out on the Wednesday. One day… 27%. There is no reason for the movie to drop like that going towards its second weekend except that it is being roundly rejected by audiences. At this rate, the movie may literally not reach $200 million in gross worldwide sales. That is something which is so hard to believe could be real given that this was a film projected originally to top a billion dollars across the globe.

And though Disney has been largely silent about the movie, there are some industry and “insider” leaks starting to happen which are, unsurprisingly, quite negative about the reality of the world. Still, I’m not sure how many of us would expect for Hollywood analysts to blame parents for wanting to screen material before their children watches it. Isn’t that called good parenting?

We should additionally consider unfortunate pushback over the film’s same-gender relationship from ultra-conversative families, who have also been educated for two years to expect Pixar movies on streaming sooner rather than later,” says Robbins, referencing Disney’s decision to send multiple Pixar titles to Disney+ since the pandemic“The combination of those two sentiments seem to have instilled a ‘We’ll watch it before letting our kids see it’ mentality in some communities, particularly those with strict religious views, in contrast to the filmmakers’ intentions of championing equality and representation for everyone.”

— Shawn Robbins, Box Office Pro, Statements Given to THR

 

Darn those strict religious families for wanting to know what’s in their kids’ movies before letting them see it! Darn those ultra-conservatives for not wanting to explain how two moms can get pregnant to a seven-year-old.

Hopefully you can see the lunacy in the above two statements. Trust me, they’re sarcastic. But Robbins is funnily missing the fact that if it’s just “ultra-conservative” and “strict religious” families staying away, they must be seriously underrepresented in polling because they clearly make up the majority of the world!

There’s another quote from that article by Pamela McClintock that I really enjoy. Look at this and see if you can spot the spin:

Lightyear also under-indexed in the Northeast, where many locales are Democratic-leaning, as well as in Canada. It overperformed in the West and in the Southeast, including in many Hispanic-led markets. (Hispanics made up more than 30 percent of the audience.)

So the effort in this quote is to make it seem like different parts of the country came to see Lightyear in different percentages and thereby it proves the lesbian couple the movie revolves around were not a factor in the film bombing (they want it both ways). There’s just one huge problem. No, it didn’t overperform in the west and the southeast. It didn’t overperform anywhere. You can’t flop this badly and overperform anywhere. Instead, what they’re trying to do is use comparative statistics for a movie that did abysmal numbers. But it doesn’t work that way. Who cares if it did better as a percentage in the west versus the northeast? If the gross numbers are already in the toilet, the whole thing is a flush.

And as for the reasons… you don’t crash this hard without making a ton of errors. That certainly includes a backlash to Disney, making families have to do “the talk” with little kids by watching this, Turning Red giving families hesitancy, removing Tim Allen, a crappy premise, even worse marketing, less-than-average reception, and on and on and on.

We could be wrong though. Lightyear may have a resurgence and families may decide to go support this very “inclusive” piece of media as a way to affirm their love of pride and all things culturally momentous. That’s a future which could absolutely happen. But if the decline in sales from day-to-day over the beginning of this week are any sort of indicator, Lightyear may be heading for a greater than 55% drop from already very poor starting numbers. Usually films that open very low don’t drop that much because it’s just harder to drop significantly when you don’t have all that far to go. If Lightyear pulls it off, this is one movie that the market told loud and clear to “buzz off.”

Sorry Pixar. Maybe you’ve lost your mojo.

For all the latest news that should be fun, keep reading That Park Place. As always, drop a comment down below and tell us what we got right and what we got wrong.

About the Author: WDW Pro
Avatar photo
WDW Pro is an opinionated commentator on all things Disney and Entertainment. First becoming well-known on WDWMagic.com, the author was brought on to work at Pirates and Princesses. Pro has previously released exclusive details on a variety of rumors and leaks before they were made public. Some exclusives have included breaking info on new Epcot attractions, detailing the light saber experience at the Star Wars hotel, reporting a Harrison Ford injury severity before anyone else, revealing Hugh Jackman was coming to the MCU, Storm would be linked with Wakanda and more. WDW Pro has written articles viewed by millions of readers while maintaining an 87% accuracy rating for revealing "insider" information in 2020. In 2021, the author had a better than 90% accuracy on reported leaks and rumors. Pro joined That Park Place on June 22nd, 2021. The author's accolades include being featured on The Daily Wire, cited by Timcast, numerous references by YouTube personalities, as well as having material tweeted by Dr. Jordan Peterson. WDW Pro is honored, and grateful, while hoping to make the world a better place. In 2023, a third party audit found Pro's accuracy for rumors and scoops to be 92.5%.
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The Lasseter Of The Mohicans
The Lasseter Of The Mohicans
1 year ago

Who is actually left that makes Pixar not a shell of its former self?

Alex Chaudhari
Reply to  The Lasseter Of The Mohicans
1 year ago

Andrew Stanton? Brad Bird?

Harold Locke
Harold Locke
Reply to  Alex Chaudhari
1 year ago

Brad Bird left for Skydance Animation to make Ray Gunn. Pixar is a shell of what it once was the moment that John Lasseter was forced out all that is left are embers that cannot reignite.

Bubbah
Bubbah
1 year ago

I have been trying to figure something out Pro. The Hollywood analysts quoted in the articles are just the window dressing/PR machine right? The analyses are clearly half baked at best and a cover job at worst.

Studio executives don’t actually rely on these people for any real insight into what is going on and why it is happening right? There is way too much money is on the line to rely on yes men; surely they have a devil’s advocate in the back rooms somewhere so they can suss out the truth.

2DON2D
2DON2D
Reply to  Bubbah
1 year ago

So, I happen to do some data analysis professionally, unrelated to the entertainment industry. I’ve spent 10+ years learning how to analyze data in a certain niche market. I consider myself an expert.

More than once I’ve had my conclusions challenged by someone who hasn’t spent 15 minutes of their lives doing analysis, because it challenges their “perceptions” of what the issue and solutions are.

Sure, Disney might have the smartest data wonks in the world, but if the conclusion the data leads you to is unacceptable to the cultural narrative, the creatives are just going to ignore the wonks.

BeatCal
BeatCal
Reply to  2DON2D
1 year ago

Disney “once” had the smartest data wonks in the world.

In a previous life, I worked with Kevin Mayer (not at Disney). The guy is the second smartest guy I have ever collaborated with. A man’s man. Expected and demanded rigorous analysis.

He was also in line to be next CEO. Until snowflakes leaked to “The Wrap” that he was a “bully” and would occasionally make his subordinates “cry”

Alex Chaudhari
Reply to  BeatCal
1 year ago

Too bad he worked with the Chinese in regards to TikTok.

TimQ
TimQ
1 year ago

“ ultra-conversative families” wouldn’t even have Disney+. And what parent actually watched a kids movie first to screen them before giving them to their kids. Families watch them together. Gay is an ideology and political movement. The propaganda says it’s just representation. Then why are they excluding the conservative point of view in other movies if they care about representation. Disney no longer cares about the normal nuclear family demographic.

Additionally Lightyear is likely as enjoyable as Kenobi. I already stopped watching after Episode 4. Dull. Boring. Inclusive.

Alex Chaudhari
Reply to  TimQ
1 year ago

Well you dropped out before the two episodes that arguably saved the show.

BeatCal
BeatCal
1 year ago

“from ultra-conversative families”

Well, I’m a center-lefter. Voted for Bernie and Tulsi in the 2016 and 2020 primaries (and DJT in both general elections).

And I would not take my family to see Lightyear.

Disney is out of touch with the center-left and center-right

Katie
Katie
1 year ago

The movie will most likely be on Disney+/VOD within the month (where it could have a resurgence), yet it’s definitely not a box office theatrical success. I will not be surprised if Pixar is locked to a budget of $50-60M for the next one in pre-production (if Lightyear does not help with $ stats for Disney+ – it may still have financial redemption).

Tim Allen will be on Disney+ for the holidays – The Santa Clauses (whose performance on Disney+ will give Disney statistical money data on the importance of Tim Allen).

pucstpr39
pucstpr39
Reply to  Katie
1 year ago

Unfortunately I have to disagree with you Katie about the statistical data regarding Tim Allen. Myself and others I have talked to originally signed up for Disney + with a 3 year contract that ends before Christmas. None of us have any interest in renewing or continuing to support Disney financially. I think because of this a lot of people who would support Tim Allen in The Santa Clauses will be gone and not support him through no fault of his own. Sadly Tim’s money data may be artificially suppressed by Disney’s many bad decisions such as Lightyear.

Alex Chaudhari
Reply to  pucstpr39
1 year ago

That may be you, but I highly doubt that will be the case for everyone with Tim Allen.

Alex Chaudhari
1 year ago

I disagree with the last sentence Pro only because there have been some successes from them recently like Soul and Luca. Hell if they play their cards right, Elemental could be another good movie.

KJ
KJ
1 year ago

Disney writes bad stories. The politics is cover.