‘Moana 2’ Box Office Surge Evaporates As ‘Mufasa’ and ‘Sonic 3’ Set to Dominate

When Moana 2 hit theaters last month, many believed it would become Disney’s newest billion-dollar box office blockbuster. But stiff competition and a poor critical reception have stalled the film’s growth, leading many to wonder if it will cross the billion-dollar mark.

Moana in Moana (2016), Walt Disney Studios

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Moana 2 had a phenomenal box office debut, pulling in $225 million and shattering records. At the time, many believed it could earn $1.5 or even $2 billion throughout its run. After all, Disney set a precedent for explosive animated success with Inside Out 2 earlier this year, which pulled in nearly $1.7 billion.

However, those predictions seem premature in hindsight.

While the film has made a respectable $717 million globally, it still falls far below the amount needed to meet the lofty goals the mainstream media seemed certain it would achieve.

After it opened over a five-day holiday weekend, Moana 2 stalled. The film took from day six to day nineteen to increase its gross by another 50%.

“It should have been almost doubled by now,” YouTube commentator Valliant Renegade said while picking apart the numbers on his show. “It should have gone from $225 million to at least $400 million. It should have been at least at around a two-X at this point and it’s not… It should be very close, but it’s it’s nowhere close. It’s still about $100 million shy of that mark. And, man, the weekday box offices for this are a lot lower comparably percentage-wise to Wicked… Thing looks like it’s dead.”

Things are about to get worse for the Disney animated sequel as huge competition prepares to burst onto the scene when Mufasa: The Lion King and Sonic The Hedgehog 3 open this weekend.

Jim Carrey in Sonic The Hedgehog 2 from Paramount Pictures and Sega. Photo Credit: Courtesy Paramount Pictures and Sega of America.

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Because Mufasa is a big-budget Disney movie, the company will likely shift much of the ad spend previously allocated to Moana 2 toward the Lion King prequel film. That means less public attention amid a crowded market.

So, where did Disney go wrong with Moana 2? Why has a movie that should have made nearly $2 billion struggled to reach $1 billion?

It boils down to quality and competition.

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Moana 2 has been described by many as a “beautiful disaster.” Although the visuals are stunning, many viewers found the story oversimplified and paper-thin. On top of that, the music, one of the original Moana’s biggest selling points, falls far below the mark. This likely stems from a shortened production schedule and the absence of Lin-Manuel Miranda, who did not return to write the sequel’s music.

According to Alan Ng of Film Threat, Disney originally planned a completely different animated princess movie for Q4 of 2024. However, the studio canceled that film and reworked the previously announced Moana television series into Moana 2. According to many reviews, it’s obvious the film was originally intended for television.

In addition, Moana 2 has faced strong competition from Universal Studios’ Wicked, which has demonstrated significant staying power (though it too will likely not reach $1 billion). Wicked has posted strong weekday numbers in particular, possibly siphoning off some of Moana 2’s potential audience.

A screenshot from the trailer to Wicked, YouTube

Despite failing to hit the milestones predicted by the media, Disney will likely still consider Moana 2 a success. The film has earned $717 million on a reported $150 million budget. So while it is profitable, it hasn’t become the smash hit many expected.

Of course, one should never discount the staying power of animated family films. They often remain in theaters for lengthy runs and benefit from a “Little Engine That Could” effect of slow, steady growth.

Do you believe Moana 2 will ultimately break the $1 billion mark at the box office? Why is this film underperforming compared to its lofty expectations? Sound off in the comments and let us know!

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