Disney’s live-action Moana is already facing an uphill battle at the box office.
After weeks of declining box office projections, the highly anticipated remake managed just $4.5 million in Thursday preview screenings, a figure that lands well below Disney’s biggest live-action remake successes and raises fresh questions about whether audiences were ever asking for another trip to Motunui.
For a film carrying a reported $250 million production budget before marketing, those preview numbers are difficult to ignore. While preview grosses don’t determine a film’s final fate on their own, they often provide an early indication of audience enthusiasm heading into opening weekend.
And compared to Disney’s recent live-action remakes, Moana isn’t exactly making waves.
How Moana Compares to Disney’s Other Live-Action Remakes
According to Deadline, Moana‘s Thursday preview total sits in an awkward middle ground among Disney’s modern remakes:
- The Little Mermaid — $10.3 million previews, $95.5 million opening weekend
- Aladdin — $7 million previews, $91.5 million opening weekend
- Moana — $4.5 million previews
- Snow White — $3.5 million previews, $42.2 million opening weekend
- Dumbo — $2.6 million previews, $45.9 million opening weekend
The comparison isn’t encouraging.
READ: Moana 2026 Is Nearly a Copy-and-Paste of the Original: And That Leads to One Very Awkward Moment
While Moana outperformed Snow White and Dumbo in previews, it fell dramatically short of Disney’s stronger-performing remakes like The Little Mermaid and Aladdin. More importantly, it trails far behind 2024’s animated Moana 2, which earned $13.8 million in Tuesday previews before launching to a massive $139.7 million three-day opening over Thanksgiving.
Tracking Has Been Falling for Weeks
The preview number follows a steady downward trend in industry expectations.
Early tracking suggested Moana might open north of $80 million, but projections steadily slid throughout the past several weeks.
Dwayne The Rock Johnson as Maui in the live action Moana – YouTube, Disney
More recently, forecasts settled into the $57 million to $72 million range, with some exhibitors reportedly expecting numbers in the high $40 million range instead. Thursday’s $4.5 million preview doesn’t do much to inspire confidence that Disney will significantly outperform those more conservative estimates.
If walk-up business fails to materialize over the weekend, Disney could be looking at another disappointing theatrical debut for one of its increasingly expensive live-action remakes.
The Budget Makes Everything Worse
The biggest problem may not be the opening weekend itself.
It’s the cost.
As we’ve previously reported, Moana reportedly carries a $250 million production budget before global marketing expenses. Add another $100 million to $150 million for worldwide promotion, and Disney could easily have $350 million to $400 million invested in the film before theaters ever take their cut.
An island in Moana – YouTube, Disney
Under the traditional industry rule of thumb, a movie generally needs to earn roughly 2.5 times its production budget worldwide just to reach profitability after exhibitors take their share and marketing costs are factored in.
That would put Moana‘s break-even point somewhere around $625 million worldwide—and potentially even higher depending on the final marketing spend.
Opening in the $50-60 million range domestically doesn’t make that impossible.
But it certainly doesn’t make it easy.
Critics Haven’t Helped
Audience curiosity also appears to be colliding with weak critical reception.
The live-action remake currently sits at just 35% on Rotten Tomatoes from critics, making it one of Disney’s worst-reviewed live-action remakes to date—lower than Snow White, Dumbo, and Aladdin.
Young Moana in the Moana live action movie – YouTube, Disney
While family audiences don’t always follow critics, negative reviews can reduce urgency, especially for a remake of a beloved animated classic that many fans already own at home and can stream whenever they want.
Is Disney Finally Hitting Live-Action Fatigue?
Perhaps the biggest question isn’t whether Moana can still post a respectable opening weekend.
It’s whether Disney’s remake strategy has finally reached its limit.
The like to dislike ratio for the second Moana trailer as of June 7, 2026 – YouTube, Disney
The original Moana remains enormously popular. Moana 2 crossed the billion-dollar mark only a short time ago. Yet instead of letting the animated franchise continue naturally, Disney chose to revisit essentially the same story in live-action less than a decade after the original.
That strategy worked for films like Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King. But audiences increasingly seem willing to ask whether these remakes actually offer anything new.
If Thursday’s preview number is any indication, many moviegoers may already have their answer.
How do you think Moana will do at the box office? Sound off and let us know!
