Headlines about telling you that Avatar: Fire and Ash is “legging out” better than its predecessor. There’s a reason that language is being used. It’s because when you do a direct comparison between the two films, it’s clear that Fire and Ash is in significant decline. In fact, the film is down 40% domestically… and as we’ve said before, because of ticket prices, that means it’s far worse for actual attendance numbers.
So how bad is it for Avatar: Fire and Ash? Well, we decided to break those numbers down for you after seven official days and show you how it compares to Way of Water in its first seven.
A screenshot from Avatar: The Way of Water – YouTube, Avatar
Avatar: Fire and Ash — first 7 days
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Domestic (U.S./Canada): $119M
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International: $331M
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Worldwide: $450M
Avatar: The Way of Water — first 7 domestic days (and closest published international split)
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Domestic (U.S./Canada) through Day 7 (Thu, Dec 22, 2022): $197.68M
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For international + worldwide, one widely cited free breakdown lands one day earlier (through Wed, Dec 21, 2022 / Day 6):
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Domestic: $182.9M
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International: $426.8M
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Worldwide: $609.7M
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Where Fire and Ash is trailing (using the published figures above):
Domestic (true 7-day vs true 7-day)
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Fire and Ash: $119M
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Way of Water: $197.68M
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Gap: -$78.68M (about -40%)
International (Fire and Ash 7-day vs Way of Water)
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Fire and Ash: $331M
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Way of Water: $426.8M
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Gap: -$95.8M (about -22%)
Worldwide (Fire and Ash 7-day vs Way of Water)
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Fire and Ash: $450M
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Way of Water: $609.7M
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Gap: -$159.7M (about -26%)
A screenshot from Avatar: The Way of Water – YouTube, Avatar
Although a 22% drop internationally isn’t terrible, the domestic importance of Avatar is in full collapse and could get worse. Claims that the film is “holding” better than the prior movie are using deceptive marketing strategies… and maybe those talking points are making their way from 20th Century itself? Articles claim that the second weekend is likely to only see a 30% drop, unlike Way of Water. What they don’t tell you is that in 2022, Christmas was the Sunday of the second week, meaning that Christmas Eve and Christmas Day took up the weekend and there really can’t be much of a worse day for move theaters than Christmas Eve. This year, the second weekend has no such issue. Thus, that’s the statistical “truth” they can use to hide what is reality.
You may have enjoyed Avatar: Fire and Ash. I found it a mixed bag. But audiences, especially domestically, aren’t excited about it in the way the other Avatar films enjoyed. And that means that if James Cameron wants to continue making these insanely expensive experiences, the next movie has to succeed on its own merits rather than the force of its franchise prowess. That prowess… is gone.
