Moana is the princess of more than just an island in the Pacific Ocean. Moana is the ultimate princess of Disney+. It isn’t Elsa or Ana that rule the streaming service, it’s the girl from Motunui. Now, with Encanto having had an ultimately disappointing opening weekend, Disney may be readying a Moana sequel announcement.
“[Encanto] is a very mediocre debut gross. The $27 million Fri-Sun gross is on par with the $24-$29 million likes of Meet the Robinsons, Bolt…” — Scott Mendelson, Forbes
Yes, I know, Scott Mendelson is often very, very wrong. But even a blind squirrel finds a nut, so let’s give him credit when credit is due.
Encanto is looking to land with a thud, earning a meager $40 million during a five-day Thanksgiving weekend. Compare that to Moana, which had $56 million in just three days, and you can see why Disney might be desperate to return to the wayfinder played by Auliʻi Cravalho and a certain demigod played by The Rock. Encanto is further stymied by its imminent Disney+ debut for free by Christmas. This means that Encanto is likely to have a steep drop-off following its second week in theaters. Meanwhile, Moana remains in the top ten streaming movies on all platforms week after week after week… even more than five years since its release. Talk about staying power!
A source that I have spoken with several times, with a high accuracy, has relayed to me that Disney may be ready to speed up a Moana sequel announcement in order to allay concerns that they’re running out of steam at theaters and on televisions. I’m told that Disney is likely to announce a new Moana in the first half of 2022. As for a release, it’s unlikely to be ready before 2023. It has been suggested to me that Disney would like to aggressively target November 2023, but that needs to come with the caveat that these things can absolutely change. That’s especially true when we’re talking about events that are multiple years on the horizon with an ongoing, unpredictable pandemic.
Latest Streaming Ratings for Movies (late October):
| Rank |
SVOD Provider |
Program Name |
# of Episodes |
Minutes (Millions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Disney+ | Black Widow | 1 | 269 |
| 2 | Disney+ | Hocus Pocus | 1 | 237 |
| 3 | Netflix | The Forgotten Battle | 1 | 216 |
| 4 | Netflix | Going In Style | 1 | 210 |
| 5 | Netflix | Night Teeth (2021) | 1 | 188 |
| 6 | Disney+ | Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas | 1 | 168 |
| 7 | Disney+ | Luca (2021) | 1 | 150 |
| 8 | Disney+ | Moana | 1 | 134 |
| 9 | Netflix | Titanic (1997) | 1 | 117 |
| 10 | Netflix | My Little Pony: A New Generation | 1 | 109 |
But beware any belief that Moana 2 can be as well-received as the original. Much of the success of that film comes from Lin Manuel-Miranda’s excellent songwriting. However, that magic has dimmed over the past years. Encanto is a dud. In the Heights was a flop. We don’t know if Tick Tick Boom is taking off yet, but internet search data doesn’t suggest that it is driving a lot of interest. The Little Mermaid work he did wasn’t impressive. Essentially, what I’m saying is that Miranda may be burning out… he has been pumping out a ton of content, but not reaching the highs of Hamilton or Moana. Can he rekindle that?
Announcing a new Moana is likely to mean that Disney is eager to pay Dwayne Johnson a huge amount of money to reprise Maui as well. But CEO Bob Chapek wants to return to what works… and Moana very much works. Will Moana 2? I guess we’re going to find out sooner rather than later.
