Long-range box office tracking predictions have arrived for Sony’s upcoming Spider-Man spin-off film Madame Web and it’s looking worse than Jared Leto’s Morbius film.
Madame Web poster
Box Office Pro shared their long-range predictions revealing they believe the film will only gross between $25 million and $35 million in its opening weekend.
Furthermore, the outlet claims that it will only gross between $56 million and $101 million in its entire run at domestic theaters.
Dakota Johnson as Cassandra Webb in Madame Web (2024), Sony Pictures
For comparison, Leto’s Morbius film grossed $39 million in its opening weekend and went on to earn $74.8 million at the domestic box office. It grossed $162.7 million globally.
Morbius is the worst performing Sony Marvel film to be released so far, and it looks like Madame Web is going to give it a run for its money.
Other Spider-Man live-action spin-off films have grossed over $200 million at the domestic box office. 2018’s Venom raked in $213.5 million domestically after an opening weekend of $80.2 million. It grossed $856 million globally.
The sequel, Venom: Let There be Carnage also brought in $213 million albeit in 2021 meaning it sold less tickets due to inflation. It had an opening weekend of $90 million. It ended its worldwide run at $501.5 million.
Dakota Johnson as Cassandra Webb in Madame Web (2024), Sony Pictures
The film’s poor tracking means it will likely lose Sony money. The film reportedly has a production in the $80 million range, which means it needs to earn at least $200 million worldwide to break even.
If it tracks similarly to Morbius, it won’t hit that mark as the film topped out at $162.7 million as mentioned above. After its opening weekend the film declined 74% domestically to just $10.2 million in its second weekend. In its third weekend it declined 54% to $4.7 million. By its fourth weekend domestic gross topped out at $2.3 million, a decline of 51%.
Sydney Sweeney as Julia Carpenter in Madame Web (2024), Sony Pictures
As another comparison, The Marvels ended its box office run just below the $200 million global mark at $199.7 million. The film had an opening weekend of $46.1 million. It would go on to suffer enormous drops at the box office in subsequent weekends.
In its second weekend, it’s domestic gross declined 78% to just $10.1 million. It declined another 38% in its third weekend to $6.3 million. In the fourth weekend, it had a huge decline of 60% and only brought in $2.5 million.
Tahar Rahim as Ezekiel Sims in Madame Web (2024), Sony Pictures
It’s not surprising that the film is tracking so poorly given it’s a Spider-Man spin-off film without Spider-Man or arguably his most popular antagonist, Venom. The film centers itself around a F-list Spider-Man character in Madame Web.
On top of that, the film looks to be more of the same from Hollywood as its a bunch of women saving the day from a male villain, an obvious attempt at trying to push feminist ideology.
Moviegoers have gradually come to the realization that this is indeed what Hollywood studios have done to many of their favorite characters, franchises, and even entire genres and are now actively rejecting it. One need look no further than The Marvels.
In 2019, the first Captain Marvel film grossed $1.1 billion globally while being sandwiched between Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame. Less than five years later, the sequel film, The Marvels, couldn’t even gross $200 million worldwide.
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel/Carol Danvers in Marvel Studios’ THE MARVELS. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2023 MARVEL.
Another mark against the film, is that it’s not even faithful to the comics when it comes to the depiction of the characters.
The film race replaces Martha “Mattie” Franklin with actress Celeste O’Connor. In the comics, Mattie Franklin is the niece of J. Jonah Jameson and is clearly not black.
Martha Franklin in The Amazing Spider-Man #441 (1998), Marvel Comics
What do you make of these early long-range box office predictions for Madame Web?
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