Warner Bros. and DC Studios are heading into another critical weekend, but the latest box office projections suggest Supergirl is unlikely to provide the turnaround James Gunn’s DC Universe desperately needs.
While Disney and Pixar’s Toy Story 5 is expected to dominate theaters for a second consecutive weekend with another massive haul, Supergirl appears headed for an opening that would rank among the weakest debuts for a modern superhero film.
Even the most optimistic industry forecasts now place the film well below last summer’s Superman, and increasingly close to the territory occupied by some of Marvel and DC’s biggest recent disappointments.
Industry Tracking Paints a Troubling Picture
The Hollywood trades have generally settled on an opening in the $40 million to $50 million range. Deadline is currently projecting an opening in the upper $40 millions, with some tracking suggesting the film could barely clear the $50 million mark if everything breaks in its favor. At the same time, Toy Story 5 is expected to remain the No. 1 movie in America with a staggering $88 million to $96 million second weekend after opening to nearly $160 million.
However, not everyone covering the box office is buying the more optimistic projections for Supergirl.
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Box Office Theory currently forecasts a far more conservative $34 million to $43 million opening, while noting Warner Bros.’ own internal expectations are around $47 million to $50 million.
Earlier long-range forecasts from Box Office Pro landed in the $45 million to $55 million range, but recent tracking throughout the industry has consistently drifted downward as release approached.
The result is an industry that appears largely united on one conclusion: Supergirl is unlikely to match even the opening of The Flash.
Opening Below The Flash Would Be Difficult to Spin
That comparison is particularly damaging.
Despite becoming one of the biggest financial disappointments in DC history, The Flash still managed a $55 million domestic opening weekend before collapsing.
Current projections place Supergirl below that benchmark.
Eara Miller as The Flash in The Flash – YouTube, DC
If those numbers hold, Supergirl would launch beneath a film that Warner Bros. spent years trying to salvage amid endless controversy surrounding its star and ultimately wrote off as one of the studio’s biggest superhero failures.
The next comparison many box office watchers will be observing closely is Marvel Studios’ The Marvels, which opened to just $46.1 million domestically before becoming the lowest-grossing film in the history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Should Supergirl open beneath The Marvels, it would become nearly impossible for Warner Bros. to present the film as anything resembling a success.
Toy Story 5 Is Dominating the Conversation
Making matters worse is the competition.
Rather than facing a soft marketplace, Supergirl arrives one week after Toy Story 5 exploded to the biggest opening weekend of 2026.
Instead of collapsing in its second frame, Pixar’s sequel is expected to post one of the strongest second weekends ever for a modern animated blockbuster, with projections approaching $90 million or more. That’s a feat made even more impressive when you consider that Supergirl will have most of the premium format screens this weekend.
Buzz and Woody in Toy Story 5 – IMAX, YouTube
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That means family audiences remain heavily invested in Disney’s latest release while theater attention and much of the box office conversation continue revolving around Pixar rather than DC.
For a superhero movie intended to build momentum for James Gunn’s new DC Universe, that is far from an ideal environment.
Another Critical Test for James Gunn’s DC Universe
Warner Bros. has invested heavily in presenting Supergirl as one of the pillars of its rebooted DC Universe.
Yet if the film opens in the low-to-mid $40 million range—or worse—it’ll raise fresh questions about whether audiences are embracing the studio’s long-term strategy.
Opening weekend is only one part of a film’s overall run, and strong word of mouth can always improve long-term prospects. But first impressions matter, particularly for franchise filmmaking.
James Gunn sits for an interview – YouTube, GQ
Right now, the consensus across virtually every major box office tracker is that Supergirl is headed for a flop opening below The Flash. The remaining question is whether it can avoid the additional embarrassment of opening below The Marvels.
With Toy Story 5 poised to claim another weekend crown by a massive margin, Warner Bros. may soon find itself explaining why one of the DC Universe’s flagship films couldn’t even win its debut weekend.
How do you think Supergirl will do at the box office? Sound off and let us know!
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