Things are not looking good at the North American box office for 2025. In fact, it’s downright catastrophic.
For the domestic box office in 2025 to match or surpass 2024, the final three weeks of December must produce an unusually strong surge in ticket sales, driven primarily by robust holiday legs from the films already in release and a high-performing debut from Avatar: Fire and Ash.
Based on Box Office Mojo’s reported 2024 total of approximately $8.57 billion and 2025’s current standing near $7.9 billion as of early December, the market needs roughly $675 million in additional domestic grosses by December 31 to pull even.
That translates to an average of more than $30 million per day across all titles—ambitious but not unprecedented, given that December 2024 generated well over $680 million from just four major films (Moana 2, Wicked, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, and Mufasa: The Lion King). The question, therefore, is whether the 2025 slate can replicate that level of late-year power.
Sonic, Knuckles, and Tails from the Sonic The Hedgehog 3 Trailer – Paramount Pictures
READ: Paramount Hacked — X Bio Rewritten to Accuse Studio of Serving a “Fascist Regime”
The foundation of that effort rests with the current theatrical leaders: Zootopia 2 at about $223 million domestic, Wicked: For Good just under $300 million, and Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 at roughly $67 million. To stay on pace, these three films must continue performing at above-average holiday multipliers.
Zootopia 2 would likely need to finish the year in the $300–340 million domestic range, adding $80–120 million from mid-December forward. Wicked: For Good would need to stretch into the $340–370 million range, contributing another $40–70 million.
Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba in Wicked: For Good – Universal Pictures
Even though horror is more front-loaded, Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 must hold well enough to deliver another $40–60 million by month’s end. Together with other holdovers—including titles such as Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, Predator: Badlands, The Running Man, and expanding awards-season players—the films already in theaters realistically need to produce somewhere between $250 million and $300 million for the remainder of December. Anything significantly below that range makes closing the annual gap nearly impossible.
Supplementing the holdovers are several mid-tier and specialty releases arriving before Christmas, including Ella McCay, Hamnet, Dust Bunny, and Lone Samurai. While none of these films is expected to operate as a four-quadrant blockbuster, they collectively need to outperform the typical December adult-drama and genre-film pattern.
A Predator in the trailer to Predator Badlands – YouTube, 20th Century Studios
READ: Netflix Responds to “Entirely Expected” Paramount Hostile Bid for Warner Bros.
Instead of contributing a combined $60–80 million, which would be typical for this tier, they need to push closer to $120–150 million across the remainder of the month. In other words, the middle of the slate must behave more like a set of modest holiday sleepers rather than the usual awards-season soft earners.
As of right now, that would break the overall trend for the year and seems unlikely.
A screenshot from Avatar: The Way of Water – YouTube, Avatar
Even if holdovers and mid-level releases perform well, the ultimate swing factor is James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash, opening December 19. Current long-range forecasts place its opening weekend in the $135–165 million range, with some models pointing slightly lower or higher depending on market conditions. To close the year-end gap, Avatar must not only open strongly but also ramp quickly into the Christmas–New Year corridor. A domestic total of $260–300 million by December 31 is likely the minimum required for 2025 to remain in contention with 2024
Anything closer to $230–250 million by year-end would severely undermine the year’s chances unless the rest of the slate dramatically overperforms. Conversely, if Fire and Ash opens at the top of its current tracking band… around $160 million or more… and approaches $300–320 million domestically by the end of the year, the 2025 box office would be positioned to match or even surpass 2024 outright.
Still, that’s a tall order.
A screenshot from Avatar: The Way of Water – YouTube, Avatar
Bringing these elements together, three conditions must be met. First, the existing hits must show exceptional holiday legs, more akin to the “long-run” dynamics seen in films like Avatar: The Way of Water or classic Christmas corridor performers rather than the more front-loaded trend of the 2020s.
Second, the mid-tier holiday slate must collectively overachieve, contributing at least $120–150 million rather than fading into the background. Third, Avatar: Fire and Ash must deliver a top-tier launch and achieve a year-end domestic total in the $280–300 million range, serving as the anchor required to lift the annual total into parity with 2024.
A screenshot from Avatar: The Way of Water – YouTube, Avatar
If these three conditions align, 2025 could finish in the $8.6–8.7 billion range and edge out 2024. But if any one of these components falters—particularly Avatar—the year is likely to close slightly below the prior year’s benchmark despite December’s strong start.
Bottom line: after a terrible 2024, everything was supposed to line up for a 2025 rebound at the movies. Now, it’s a scramble and scratch to try to wrestle a tiny win over the past year. How long cinemas can survive this is the next question on everyone’s minds.
What do you think about the 2025 U.S. box office? Sound off on social media and let us know!
