Earlier in the week, I noted that my own formula for determining a movie’s success what showing that The Batman was on track for a $91 million opening. That was more than Forbe’s Scott Mendelson was predicting with $80 million, but less than the trades that were guessing more along the $110 – $120 million. But boy was I wrong… along with everyone else! The Batman has come in like a fireball and it is lighting up the theaters everywhere in America.
The Batman is currently projected to earn about $130 million in its opening weekend!
Holy Money-Maker, Batman!
There are a couple of reasons why this is so impressive. First, The Batman opened with a new little gimmick that made predicting its overall success quite difficult. Namely, the movie released on Imax for limited screenings on Tuesday and Wednesday. These days were then rolled into the Thursday total — but it was hard to say if that had pulled audiences from the traditional weekend, or whether this was just all a plus for Warner Bros. Well, a plus it was! The second thing that made it difficult is that this is a very long movie. At three-hours, the film is so long that theaters are unable to carry the same number of showings that they can for more traditional duration films.
Guess what? It doesn’t matter.
Now that’s not to say that The Batman is on par with Spider-Man: No Way Home. It’s not. But it is a big enough success thus far that Warner Bros likely is thinking hard about dropping the whole stand-alone line and seeing if they can make a run with the current actors and universe.
That the movie was able to do this during a time when people are more likely to look for escapism — and this movie is not an escapist, popcorn flick — is all the more impressive. It’s a huge win for Warner Bros, it’s a huge win for theaters, it’s a huge win for the traditional movie release plan, and it’s a huge win for DC as they continue to look for the right formula to be relevant. Well… this is definitely how you stay relevant and even grow.
The second weekend will be huge for this movie. To get into the profit category, the film needs to make more than $300 million at the box office. It’s going to be a success (it’s already at $250 million global sales), but it could be a juggernaut if word-of-mouth drives casual fans to commit three-hours of their day to seeing the latest Batman incarnation.
I wouldn’t doubt this film. Not after this sort of an opening.
Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. We really do read them! And, as always, keep checking out That Park Place for all your latest entertainment news!
It’s on track to easily beat Shang Chi and Eternals.
Per The Numbers, its production budget is $200M; therefore, it will need to earn $600M to be profitable. I think it will, yet wanted to relay that FYI. My understanding is that the original budget was $100M, but reshoots with COVID protocols doubled the production cost.
I don’t think the marketing budget topped $100M, and I wanted to be conservative in the overall cost. If it hits $300M in box office (which it will), it almost certainly goes on to profit if for no other reason than streaming and physical copy revenues.
My husband and I live in SoCal. Now that masks aren’t a thing anymore this will be the first movie we’re going to see since Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I can’t wait!
Meh, ultimately it will do Batman v Superman numbers and Warner executives were expecting No Way Home numbers. This movie is DC’s best hope and if it can’t break 1B things are not looking good for the upcoming DC movies like The Flash. Don’t forget that Warner just had an awful 2021 with lots of big money flops and when they win nowadays they can’t just have a good win. They need to make up for the giant debt they are in currently.
No one was expecting SM: NWH numbers, especially WB execs. Lol. SM: Homecoming, the opener in a trilogy, did $880M worldwide, which is very similar to the BvsS numbers you predict.
I don’t think The Batman gets there because it’s not a four quadrant movie, and never pretended to be. What it will do is spawn 2 sequels and no less than 2 spinoffs series. No other way to slice this. It’s an unmitigated win.
Revised: $134M and $258M.
What else can you say? It’s a monstrous response from the marketplace of consumers.