The one-and-done (probably) Batman film from Warner Bros, ingeniously named “The Batman”, is headed for several unmapped factors that could swing its overall haul wildly in different directions. On the one hand, Variety is reporting that they expect the film to total between $100 – $125 million for its domestic opening weekend. Of note is that The Batman soft launches today, a Tuesday, so these “weekends” are getting more and more bloated. Is it really the weekend if all that is left off is a Monday? I hate Mondays too, but let’s at least hate on Tuesdays and Wednesdays as well.
“This is clearly an important film for the industry at large, but also for the studio, is now turning its attention to the ‘theatrical first’ release model for its films moving forward. With ‘Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore’ due in April, ‘The Batman’ will set the stage for success for Warner Bros. for the rest of 2022 and beyond in theaters.”
— Paul Dergarabedian, Comscore Senior Media Analyst
Meanwhile, Scott Mendelson of Forbes, a man who is known for being wrong ninety percent of the time and still keeping a job, is predicting an $80 million launch for the new, broody Dark Knight. If you’re wondering why nobody is reporting on international box office predictions, well, there’s a war that makes predicting anything rather impossible. Just try to figure out what European theaters will do when you can’t even predict what might happen in the way of nuclear threats day-to-day. Good luck with that.
Still, even the domestic predictions are disparate. An $80 million opening versus a $120 million opening is a major gap… almost to the point of just saying “it’s going to do well.”
The reason that industry aficionados and analysts are having a hard time pegging this one is because of several factors:
- The aforementioned war in Europe is hugely tricky even for predicting American box office results. It’s been so long since we’ve had a war in Europe, and we’ve never really had a war with cameras everywhere like in Ukraine. How does this affect moviegoers? Does it make people want to escape to the movies, or do people just feel bummed out and stay at home?
- The Batman is a dark, somber, messy film. It’s three hours of darkness and rain. Is that the sort of film that people want to see at a time when inflation is running sky high, nuclear war is being threatened for the first time in many decades, and images of carpet bombs in urban centers are out there?
- A three-hour movie is quite the commitment. Sometimes that can pay off with movies like the Lord of the Rings trilogy… but it can also drive audiences away if the film isn’t a market-driver.
- I don’t think masking is a big factor in all of this, but there is some difficulty in figuring out if New York and Los Angeles Batman fans will be hesitant to return to movies at a time when vaccine papers and masks are seemingly gone.
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All of that said, I’ve used a prediction model for movies over the past two years and it has been incredibly reliable. Still, I’m not fully confident that I can predict The Batman because of the war angle. If things change on the world stage, all bets are off when it comes to how many people really want to go see Gotham City.
But let’s have some fun and see how close my model comes to the actual total for The Batman in a world of uncertainty. Surely I can beat Scott, right? So here’s the WDW Pro Domestic Movie Revenue Prediction™ for The Batman’s first “weekend”:
$91 Million
Wherever you are and whatever you’re doing, stay safe. Go take a walk amongst nature and get some sunshine if you can. And if you’re excited about The Batman, drop us a comment below and tell me why I’m right or wrong on this prediction. We’ll have a review up later this week. And, as always, keep checking out That Park Place for all the latest news that should be fun!
