Things are turning around for Disney, Jon Favreau, and all the folks making The Book of Boba Fett. Now can they do it with Boba Fett himself?
I’ve been monitoring a continuous lowering of internet searches for The Book of Boba Fett as the series has continued. The show had already started lower than expected with the first episode, barely beating Hawkeye — itself a lower-than-desired performing series. Now sure, this was spun in the press as a win, but beating one of your lower viewership mini-series can’t be great. So watching The Book of Boba Fett slowly diminish in online buzz over time was a bad sign for Disney+.
But my how one episode can change things…
Having kept an eye on how these episodes perform in driving interest for their seven days, I can tell you that the chart below is certainly different than in the past. The Book of Boba Fett episodes have typically driven searches at their launch, then driven about an equal number of searches the next evening in the United States, but they have trailed off quickly. That means there have been sharp peaks in interest and then sharp dives. For shows, that tends to indicate fans tuning in, but the average person not checking it out: i.e. the mainstream viewer isn’t tuning in.
Now does all this correlate directly to viewership? No. But it’s just one tool in determining how a show is doing in streaming. We don’t have something like box office numbers for streaming platforms — in the case of movies in theaters, we know exactly how they performed financially versus really close calls on their production costs. For streaming items, we have a bunch of different flawed means for gathering data. Even when it comes to services like Samba TV and Nielsen, they use measurements that aren’t fully representative of how a show is performing. To add to the difficulty, the value in a streaming show isn’t determined by purchases of the show… it’s determined by subscriber retention and increases. Even that is fuzzy for the platform companies themselves. There has long been criticism of ratings metrics, and streaming shows are far more difficult to judge.
I say all that to clarify I believe Google Trends is actually one of the very best tools available for figuring out the success of these media properties. It gives us insight into how much interest, buzz, anticipation, chatter, etc, is happening surrounding these entities whose sole function is to drive subscriptions.
The chart above shows something new for The Book of Boba Fett. Rather than seeing quick drop-offs, Episode 5 is resulting in sustained interest, as well as interest going into the following day (sizable as well). When combined with charts from prior episodes’ performances, Episode 5 is clearly the biggest episode for the series since Episode 1. It may have already eclipsed it. While I don’t have any rumors or potential leaks for this episode’s performance, it’s certainly changing other means of judging it as well — and all without featuring a single second of its lead actor and star. There’s no Boba Fett in this Boba Fett episode.
Currently this episode has a rating of 9.5/10 on IMDb pic.twitter.com/aZAtuN4HuE
— starrymm426 (@starrymm426) January 27, 2022
The Book of Boba Fett officially lands a "Certified Fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes.https://t.co/jDA8ehkzjh pic.twitter.com/y7TgkfBuKs
— CBR (@CBR) January 28, 2022
By every measure that we have, Episode 5 is a big win for Disney+, for Bryce Dallas Howard, and for Jon Favreau. It’s a big win for The Mandalorian as well, and may signal that the third season of that show is clear for takeoff even without Gina Carano. Then again, that might not be the case, and this may actually be the result of people being so shocked by this strange new episode. Still, if the reviews for something can be this stellar, it’s hard to imagine that anything would stop it from being successful. I’m talking about audience reviews, not critic reviews (which in the past few years have proven nearly worthless in determining the success of a property).
But now we have to wonder: can The Book of Boba Fett keep this up in its last two episodes? Can it stay away from the Vespa kids, totally throwing them away? Can the show continue to win with major cameos and fulfilled hooks? Can it do so without feeling like a retread of the Luke Skywalker reveal. It’s fine to have a huge moment like that, but people are going to want actual Luke Skywalker in the future, not just a cameo. Is that the same with a potential de-aging of Han Solo?
Whatever happens, Disney has to be pleased with the outcome for Episode 5. Jon Favreau has to be looking at its reception versus the reception of other episodes and saying, “This is the way.”
Let me know in the comments below if you agree or disagree. And keep checking out That Park Place for all the latest rumors, news, leaks, and leads for all things that should be fun.
