Disney and Lucasfilm may have technically gotten The Mandalorian and Grogu to the $100 million domestic mark over Memorial Day weekend, but that’s not certain at the time of this article’s publication. Yet article after article online all declare that it has, that it will. And just like we’ve watched the prior headlines quietly downgraded for this film’s box office this weekend, one might wonder if Favreau and Filoni have missed the promised $100M goal only for the media authors to say otherwise until the public has largely moved on.
After Sunday estimates were revised downward, the latest Star Wars theatrical release found itself in a precarious position. The film’s three-day domestic opening was estimated around $81 million to $82 million, making it the lowest three-day opening of the Disney-era Star Wars films and placing it slightly behind Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened to $84.4 million over its first three days in 2018. Box Office Pro listed The Mandalorian and Grogu at $81.96 million for the Friday-through-Sunday frame, while Box Office Mojo’s daily chart later showed the number rounded down to $81 million.
That meant the movie needed a very specific Memorial Day Monday performance to reach the symbolic $100 million four-day tally. Using the $81 million three-day figure now reflected by Box Office Mojo, the film needed exactly $19 million on Monday to arrive at $100 million. Box Office Mojo’s current estimated daily chart does show precisely that: $19 million on Monday, bringing the running domestic total to exactly $100 million. The problem is, those are round numbers and the real tally won’t be available until at least May 27th. At that point, most readers will have moved on, confident the film met a low but important mark… unaware that the media has been retreating from their claims days later.
The issue is not that $100 million over four days is a disaster in ordinary box office terms, and that even remains true if Mando winds up with $98-99M over the four days. For most franchises, that would be a pretty good launch. The issue is that this is Star Wars, returning to theaters for the first time since 2019’s The Rise of Skywalker. It also opened over Memorial Day weekend, benefited from premium-format pricing, and had Grogu, arguably Disney’s most commercially successful new Star Wars character of the last decade, front and center.
Under those circumstances, a $100 million four-day number should have been the floor, not a number that required Monday to come in (reportedly) perfect.
The Monday math is especially important because holiday Mondays are not automatic saviors. Memorial Day can provide a boost compared with a normal Monday, but it is still the final day of a long weekend. By then, the most motivated fans have already shown up, families have often made their holiday plans, and Sunday evening can pull demand forward. A $19 million Monday after an estimated $22.5 million Sunday is plausible, but it requires a modest drop of only about 15.6 percent. That is exactly what Box Office Mojo currently estimates, but it leaves very little room for final actuals to come in lower. That is why the phrase “missed $100 million” may still hang over the movie even if Disney’s estimate survives. The studio did not produce a comfortable $105 million or $110 million four-day debut. It produced, at least for now, a number that appears engineered right at the psychological line.
The comparisons to Solo are unavoidable. Solo was treated as a major warning sign for Lucasfilm when it opened with $84.4 million over three days and $103 million over the four-day Memorial Day frame in 2018. The Mandalorian and Grogu appears to have opened lower over three days and either slightly below, at, or just barely around Solo over four days, depending on the final actuals. AP and other outlets have reported the film at $82 million over three days with an expected $102 million four-day total, while Box Office Mojo’s latest estimate shows $100 million exactly.
Even without adjusting for inflation, that is a disappointing comparison. With inflation, it is far worse. A Star Wars movie opening in 2026 near the same nominal level as the movie that effectively halted Disney’s theatrical spinoff strategy is not a sign of a fully healed franchise. It is a sign that expectations have been dramatically lowered.
The larger problem for Lucasfilm is perception. For years, Disney treated Star Wars as one of the crown jewels of modern entertainment. The franchise once opened movies like The Force Awakens and Rogue One at levels that made ordinary blockbusters look small. Now the conversation is about whether the first theatrical Star Wars release in seven years can remain above $100 million over a holiday frame.
That is a stunning shift.
The Monday estimate may ultimately hold. Disney may get to say that The Mandalorian and Grogu opened to $100 million domestically over Memorial Day. But the more honest reading is that this was not a commanding return for Star Wars. It was a narrow escape from a far uglier headline.
And if final actuals slip even slightly below the current estimate, Disney will face that headline anyway: The Mandalorian and Grogu missed $100 million over four days.
