Early box office tracking suggests that The Mandalorian and Grogu is trailing behind Solo, leading many industry watchers to say, “This is not the way.”
The upcoming Star Wars film marks the franchise’s first theatrical release in nearly seven years, continuing the story of the hit Disney+ series that ran for three seasons. Despite that built-in audience, The Mandalorian and Grogu could open below Solo: A Star Wars Story—a box office benchmark that carries its own baggage, as Solo is widely regarded as one of the franchise’s weaker theatrical performers.
Box Office Tracking and Opening Weekend Comparison
The data comes from Box Office Theory. According to its estimates, The Mandalorian and Grogu is tracking for a $70–$85 million domestic opening weekend. In comparison, Solo—which also opened on Memorial Day—debuted with $84.4 million domestically over its first three days. Adjusted for inflation, that total rises to roughly $110.6 million in today’s dollars, making the comparison even less favorable.
The Mandalorian and Grogu – Star Wars, YouTube
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Solo was widely considered a disappointment relative to expectations at the time of its release. If The Mandalorian and Grogu falls short of even that relatively modest benchmark set by Solo, the impact would be more than financial—it would carry symbolic weight for the franchise.
That raises a key question about how the film might perform beyond its opening weekend.
Legs, Multipliers, and Global Outlook
Some industry analysts note that, like other family-driven releases, Star Wars films tend not to be heavily front-loaded at the box office. The dedicated fan base provides a strong foundation, but families planning theater visits remain a major driver of overall performance.
Solo posted a 2.53 multiplier during its run, which is broadly typical for the franchise’s theatrical releases. If The Mandalorian and Grogu follows a similar trajectory to Solo, it may ultimately struggle to reach $400 million globally.
Grogu from The Mandalorian and Grogu trailer – Star Wars, YouTube
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While it may sound unusual for a Star Wars film, its performance could hinge on strong reviews and positive word of mouth rather than brand recognition alone. That dynamic also puts added scrutiny on the film’s star power and whether it can meaningfully drive audience turnout.
Star Power and Audience Pull
Notably, this is not a niche property anchored by unknown talent or limited audience awareness. Last summer, star Pedro Pascal was widely positioned as an emerging box office draw with growing mainstream appeal. After three seasons portraying Din Djarin, he arguably carries stronger name recognition than Solo lead Alden Ehrenreich did at the time.
Pedro Pascal at Star Wars Celebration – YouTube, Star Wars
However, following the underperformance of the Pascal-led Fantastic Four: First Steps last summer, some observers began to question the extent of his broad box office appeal. He also appeared prominently across multiple major theatrical releases and television series in 2025, leading some audiences to suggest the onset of “Pedro fatigue.”
Franchise Trajectory and Audience Fragmentation
The sequel trilogy showed diminishing box office returns with each installment, and Solo: A Star Wars Story was sandwiched between the final two chapters. Disney shifted its Star Wars output to streaming series. Many of those projects proved deeply divisive among fans, often generating more debate than consensus.
A screencap from The Mandalorian and Grogu – YouTube, Star Wars
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Now, as The Mandalorian and Grogu prepares to make the leap from television to the big screen, the fan base appears more fragmented than it was during Solo’s release. Taken as a whole, the early projections suggest that the franchise may no longer benefit from the residual goodwill or unified audience enthusiasm that once supported even its mid-tier theatrical entries.
Do you think The Mandalorian and Grogu will open worse than Solo? Let us know in the comments!
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