For almost 50 years, a new live-action Star Wars movie has generally arrived in theaters with an aura of inevitability. That day is no more. Even when the franchise became divisive, even when reviews were mixed, even when fan enthusiasm was fractured… the box office power of the brand was usually enough to keep Star Wars at the top of the domestic chart for more than one weekend.
Now that may be about to change.
The Mandalorian and Grogu is now projected to lose the No. 1 spot at the domestic box office in its second weekend to A24’s Backrooms, a horror film based on the internet creepypasta phenomenon popularized by filmmaker Kane Parsons. If that happens (and it very much looks like it will), it would mark a stunning symbolic low point for Lucasfilm. Not merely because the movie would be dropping hard, but because it appears to be the first time a first-run, live-action theatrical Star Wars film has held the top spot at the domestic box office for only a single weekend.
That distinction matters.
Yes, Solo: A Star Wars Story was considered a major disappointment in 2018. It opened softly by Star Wars standards, dropped sharply in weekend two, and ultimately became the movie that caused Disney and Lucasfilm to pause theatrical Star Wars for years. But even Solo managed to remain No. 1 in its second weekend. It fell roughly 65 percent, but it still held off the competition.
The Mandalorian and Grogu may not even manage that.
Embo in The Mandalorian and Grogu – Star Wars
The latest weekend projections are rough. Boxoffice Pro is forecasting Backrooms to open in the $45 million to $55 million range, with upside possibly pushing even higher if the movie’s pre-release momentum continues. Meanwhile, The Mandalorian and Grogu is projected to fall to roughly $30 million to $35 million in its second frame. Box Office Theory is even more pessimistic for Lucasfilm, projecting Backrooms at $55.4 million and The Mandalorian and Grogu at just $29.6 million, a 64 percent drop from its three-day opening.
That would not be a routine second-weekend loss. That would be a historic reversal of the normal Star Wars hierarchy.
The optics are brutal. Disney’s first theatrical Star Wars release in nearly seven years may be overtaken in its second weekend not by a Marvel movie, not by a Pixar film, not by another legacy franchise, but by an A24 horror release rooted in internet culture. That does not mean Backrooms is insignificant. Quite the opposite. Its projected breakout shows how quickly younger audiences can mobilize around online-native properties when the concept feels fresh, communal, and culturally current. But that only makes the comparison more painful for Lucasfilm.
Backrooms looks like a movie of the moment. The Mandalorian and Grogu increasingly looks like a movie built from yesterday’s streaming strategy.
Grogu eating a cookie – Star Wars, YouTube
The problem for Disney is not simply the weekend drop. Big drops are common for franchise films, especially when opening weekends are driven by fan demand. Boxoffice Pro’s own comparison list shows that Disney-era Star Wars movies have often fallen hard in their second weekends. The Last Jedi dropped 67.5 percent. Solo dropped 65.2 percent. The Rise of Skywalker fell 59.2 percent. The difference is that those movies generally started from larger openings, which gave them enough altitude to withstand the decline.
The Mandalorian and Grogu did not have that cushion.
Its three-day domestic opening was roughly $81.7 million, lower than Solo and the weakest opening for a Disney-era Star Wars theatrical release. Even its four-day Memorial Day result failed to clear the psychologically important $100 million threshold. For another franchise, that might still look healthy. For Star Wars, it raised alarms immediately.
Now those alarms are blaring.
‘OBSESSION’ surpassed ‘THE MANDALORIAN & GROGU’ on Wednesday at the box office, retaking the #1 spot domestically. pic.twitter.com/aqIenwqjgI
— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) May 28, 2026
The deeper issue is that The Mandalorian and Grogu was supposed to prove that Disney could convert streaming affection into theatrical urgency. Grogu is arguably the most successful new Star Wars character Disney has created. The Mandalorian helped launch Disney+ and gave Lucasfilm a rare post-sequel-trilogy consensus hit. On paper, this should have been the safest possible way to bring Star Wars back to cinemas.
Instead, the film may be demonstrating the opposite lesson. Years of training audiences to experience this corner of Star Wars at home may have reduced the need to see it in theaters. For many casual viewers, The Mandalorian and Grogu may feel less like a must-see theatrical event and more like an extended Disney+ episode that happened to receive a cinema release.
That perception is dangerous.
On Wednesday 27th May, Obsession made MORE at the domestic box office than The Mandalorian and Grogu.
Obsession made $5.6m on Wednesday with The Mandalorian and Grogu making $4.2m .
What an insane feat for a low budget horror movie! pic.twitter.com/FIrUA4iPTh
— FilmIndex (@FilmIndexMedia) May 28, 2026
But what if we told you that it’s not just the second spot that Mando might slip to? We’re now looking at the chance Obsession could take the #2 spot and Star Wars actually drops to #3 in its second weekend. That would be unbelievable!
Theatrical Star Wars has historically depended on event status. The audience needed to feel that missing opening weekend meant missing a cultural moment. The Force Awakens had that. Rogue One had a version of it. Even the more divisive sequel trilogy entries had it. The Mandalorian and Grogu appears to have opened more like a franchise extension than a generational event.
Meanwhile, Backrooms is benefiting from precisely the kind of cultural curiosity that Lucasfilm used to command. It is strange. It is online-native. It has an audience that feels ownership over the mythology. It looks like something younger viewers are discovering, sharing, and turning into a communal event. That is exactly the kind of momentum Disney once enjoyed automatically with Star Wars.
If Backrooms wins the weekend, the headline writes itself: Star Wars loses No. 1 after one weekend.
Grogu from The Mandalorian and Grogu trailer – Star Wars, YouTube
That would be more than a box office footnote. It would be another sign that the franchise’s theatrical dominance has been seriously weakened. The brand can still open. It can still generate merchandise. It can still drive Disney+ engagement. It can still produce passionate fans. But the days when a new live-action Star Wars movie automatically owned the box office for multiple weeks may be over.
Disney can still argue that The Mandalorian and Grogu is better positioned financially than Solo because its production budget is reportedly far lower. That may be true. Profitability matters, and a smaller budget gives the movie more room to succeed. But this is not merely a profitability question. It is a prestige question. It is a momentum question. It is a question of what theatrical Star Wars still means.
A movie can avoid losing money and still reveal that the brand has lost power.
That is the uncomfortable reality Lucasfilm may be facing this weekend. If The Mandalorian and Grogu falls behind Backrooms, the story will not simply be that A24 scored a massive breakout. The bigger story will be that Star Wars could not hold the domestic box office crown for more than one weekend.
For Disney, that should be far more concerning than any single percentage drop. It suggests that theatrical Star Wars is no longer operating from a position of dominance. It is competing like any other franchise. And this weekend, it may be beaten by a horror movie born from the internet. It’s another forthcoming win for YouTubers… another major loss for the legacy media.
That would have been almost unthinkable a decade ago.
Now, it looks increasingly likely.
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