Frozen II vs Super Mario
Update 4/17/2023 12:30 PM ET:
Box office results for The Super Mario Bros Movie somehow improved just after publication of this article. From THR:
The Nintendo video game adaptation grossed a massive $92.5 million from 4,371 theaters in its second weekend of play at the North American box office, notably more than expected and representing a drop of just 37 percent, according to final numbers released Monday.
Frozen II and The Super Mario Bros Movie are two movies that have both made an impact in the film industry, but in very different ways. Frozen II was released in 2019 and is an animated musical adventure film produced by Walt Disney Animation Studios. The Super Mario Bros Movie was released just weeks ago and is only musical in so far as “Peaches” has captured the world’s attention. Outside of the Jack Black serenade, the film is based on the popular video game series — perhaps the most popular series on the planet. In this essay, I will compare the worldwide box office of these two movies, including first and second weekend comparisons.
Box Office Performance:
Frozen II was a major success in the box office, grossing a total of $1.45 billion worldwide. On its opening weekend, the movie grossed $358.4 million worldwide, breaking the record for the biggest opening weekend for an animated film. In its second weekend, the movie grossed $125.0 million, which is a 65.1% drop from its opening weekend. However, this is a common trend for movies, as they tend to have a drop in box office performance after the opening weekend.
On the other hand, The Super Mario Bros Movie was not as successful in the box office, grossing a jaw-dropping total of $377 million worldwide. We now know know that the film held to an astounding 45% drop in the second weekend, signaling that it has a real shot at taking down Frozen II as the highest-earning animated film of all time.
What Is Going On?
The Super Mario Bros franchise is one of the most popular and recognizable video game franchises in history, with over 40 years of history. The franchise has sold over 380 million units worldwide and has been the inspiration for countless other games, movies, and merchandise. This suggests that there is a large and dedicated fanbase for the franchise that could potentially continue turning out to see the movie. It should be noted that whereas Frozen had appeared in most of its major markets by the second weekend, The Super Mario Bros Movie STILL has not appeared in Japan or South Korea, where it is being held for The Golden Week.
Learn More: What Is the Golden Week?
In addition to the popularity of the franchise, the movie has some strong talent behind it. The film is being produced by Illumination Entertainment, which is the same studio behind other successful animated films such as the Despicable Me franchise and The Secret Life of Pets. The movie is also being directed by Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic, who have previously worked on successful animated TV shows such as Teen Titans Go! and Harley Quinn.
Many have concluded that The Super Mario Bros Movie is also a breath of fresh air — escaping the normal trappings of Hollywood storytelling and reverting to timeless, universal tropes and ideals. Perchance a new cultural movement is afoot that seeks out less push into more novel concepts of intersectional storytelling…
Frozen II Had a Major Assist
It isn’t only that Frozen II is being beaten, though (thus far). We also have to remember that Frozen II overperformed, and probably due to a reason you haven’t considered.
Frozen II exceeded box office expectations by a significant margin, grossing $1.45 billion worldwide, which is more than double its predecessor’s box office earnings. The movie was projected to make around $100 million in its opening weekend in the United States, but it surpassed these estimates by earning $130.2 million. The film also broke the record for the biggest opening weekend for an animated film, surpassing the previous record held by Incredibles 2.
The success of Frozen II can be attributed to several factors, including the popularity of the franchise and the strong marketing campaign leading up to the movie’s release. The original Frozen movie was a massive success, grossing $1.27 billion worldwide, and had a dedicated fan base eagerly awaiting the sequel. The movie also had a strong marketing campaign, with Disney promoting the film heavily on social media and through various partnerships. However, there was additionally a downfall of another film that clearly contributed to Frozen II performing spectacularly.
Skywalker’s Fall: Palpatine Unleashed
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was the ninth and final installment in the Star Wars Skywalker Saga, but it underperformed box office projections. Going up against Frozen II, the film’s tremendous downfall may have created a significant runway for other holiday movies to see unexpected boosts in revenues. This was especially true given that families often make holiday movie attendance a beloved tradition. The movie was projected to make around $175-200 million in its opening weekend in the United States, but it nearly fell short of the low-end estimates by earning $177.4 million. Although this was a strong opening for an average film, it was below expectations for a Star Wars movie, particularly as it was the conclusion of the Skywalker Saga. Worse still, the drop for Episode 9 in subsequent weeks was impressively bad and opened the door for films like Frozen II to gain unexpected steam.
It wasn’t just Frozen II that benefited from JJ Abrams’ stinker. The Rise of Skywalker was released in the same month as Jumanji: The Next Level, which should have never divided audiences’ attention and box office earnings, yet somehow did as families flocked away from Palpatine.
Can Mario Beat Frozen II?
Taking Down Frozen II is going to be a tall order for The Super Mario Bros Movie. However, the film currently stands at $678 million globally. If we factor in a Japan and South Korea release, it’s perhaps reasonable to assume they contribute $300 million in revenues. That could be slightly lower or even far greater, but let’s just use that as a baseline. Given that Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Mugen Train made more than $500 million in Japan alone, it seems to be a fair consideration.
If TSMBM pulls in $300 million from Japan and South Korea, it’s already over the one-billion mark for worldwide revenues. Then, it only needs $400 million and change to topple Frozen II. It’s a very steep hill to climb. But if it can manage another 45% weekend drop… anything is possible.
Surely now Disney is looking at losing the deeply significant all-time animation box office crown and wondering if all that placating of intra-studio idealogues was truly worth it. For now, Mario may end up with the bigger castle.
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