The summer movie season has officially begun, and Marvel Studios is once again finding itself in the uncomfortable position of managing expectations. Thunderbolts, the latest entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, earned $76 million in its opening domestic weekend box office—enough to claim the number one spot, but not enough to escape comparisons to the studio’s most notable misfires.
Bucky in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
Variety and other Hollywood access media trade publications have been quick to frame the opening as a “solid start,” citing Thunderbolts’ strong reviews and audience reactions. The film currently holds an 88% critic score on Rotten Tomatoes, with a 94% All Audience rating and 95% from Verified Viewers, not to mention an encouraging A- CinemaScore.
Ordinarily, that kind of reception would foreshadow strong legs and robust earnings in the weeks ahead.
But in Marvel’s post-Endgame era, strong reviews are no longer enough. The reality is that a $76 million opening on a film with a reported $180 million budget and an estimated $100 million marketing campaign is not a triumph—it’s a warning. Especially when it mirrors the exact pattern seen in Marvel’s other recent underperformers.
Familiar Territory—And Not in a Good Way
To understand the stakes, let’s look at the company Thunderbolts keeps at the box office.
The Opening weekend numbers for several recent Marvel movies – Chart Created by Marvin Montanaro
Eternals (2021) opened to $71 million and topped out at $402 million worldwide. A critical disappointment and widely regarded as the studio’s first true flop.
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021) debuted with $75 million and finished with a respectable $432 million worldwide, helped in part by lockdown-era leniency and strong word of mouth. It had a much lower budget than the other films on this list (a modest for Marvel $150 million), giving it an easier path to profitability.
The Marvels (2023), perhaps Marvel’s most notorious box office failure, opened to $63.3 million and stalled at $206 million worldwide, despite its billion-dollar predecessor.
Captain America: Brave New World (2025), Marvel’s most recent failure opened to $100 million on a monstrous budget that reportedly exceeded $300 million.
The team in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
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Thunderbolts slots right in the middle of that pack—not as devastating as The Marvels, but not far from it. And certainly far below the $100+ million openings that used to be the norm for Marvel releases. Captain America: Brave New World, which opened to $100 million, is still considered a financial disappointment after failing to gain traction in the weeks that followed. Its worldwide gross stands at $414 million, barely enough to scrape back its budget after theater cuts and international splits.
So where does that leave Thunderbolts? If it follows the same trajectory as Eternals or Brave New World, it may top out somewhere between $400–500 million worldwide—a figure that would still leave it short of break-even once marketing and revenue splits are factored in.
Studios typically retain about 50–60% of domestic box office receipts and closer to 40% internationally, meaning a film like this likely needs $700–750 million globally just to cover its costs.
The Spin vs. the Reality
Trade outlets are eager to point out that Thunderbolts features “lesser-known” characters—Sebastian Stan’s Bucky Barnes, Florence Pugh’s Yelena Belova, Wyatt Russell’s John Walker, and David Harbour’s Red Guardian—and that the numbers are therefore “above average” for a new superhero story. But that’s a hard sell given the ensemble’s deep connections to the broader MCU and their appearances in previous major projects. These aren’t fresh faces—they’re established characters, just not ones with the same solo draw as Iron Man or Spider-Man.
Yelena in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
Marvel itself has hyped the film as a gritty, ensemble-driven tentpole—one that should inject new energy into a franchise many believe has lost its way. But box office audiences are proving harder to convince than ever.
The positive reception suggests that Thunderbolts is actually good—which, ironically, makes the mediocre box office even more concerning. If Marvel can’t break through with a movie audiences enjoy, what happens when reception is mixed or negative?
Marvel: Another Disney Brand in Decline
The elephant in the room is trust. Marvel has spent the last few years burning through audience goodwill with a relentless release schedule, uneven storytelling, and an increasingly complex continuity spread across both theatrical films and streaming shows. Viewers once treated Marvel releases as can’t-miss events.
Now, even when critics and audiences align, the enthusiasm simply isn’t there.
The team in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
The brand fatigue is real—and it shows. Thunderbolts is being positioned as a “step in the right direction,” but strong word of mouth doesn’t change the fact that Marvel’s recent box office averages are down sharply from their pre-2020 highs. A film this expensive, with this much promotional backing, simply should not be posting numbers in line with projects considered financial failures.
The second weekend dropoff will be particularly telling for this film. If Thunderbolts manages to leg out a stronger-than-expected run, it may end up in the “mild success” category rather than “outright flop.” But that’s hardly the bar Marvel Studios was once held to. In the current landscape, a decent opening for a decent movie is being sold as a major victory—because expectations have fallen so far.
What do you think Thunderbolts will ultimately make at the box office? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
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