Marvel’s next big film is on track to be the worst performing MCU since The Marvels. It could be the canary in the coal mine, truly.
By all available metrics, Thunderbolts is shaping up to be a full-scale alarm bell for The Walt Disney Company. The anti-hero ensemble film, originally hyped as a gritty, edgy answer to Marvel fatigue, is now on track to become one of the lowest-grossing movies in the history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe — possibly the lowest, depending on how ticket sales shake out in the coming weeks. And with two other MCU entries on the 2025 slate already wobbling, this could be the year the world’s most successful cinematic franchise finally loses its grip on audiences.
According to both Box Office Pro, Thunderbolts is tracking for a domestic opening weekend between $63 million and $85 million, with a target around $70 million. That would position it among the bottom three MCU opening weekends of all time, behind films like Shang-Chi and Eternals, and not far above the franchise’s historic low, The Marvels, which debuted to just $46 million last year before collapsing with a global gross under $210 million.
First clip from ‘THUNDERBOLTS*’
In theaters on May 2. pic.twitter.com/M7vxdG9fO7
— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) April 12, 2025
What’s most concerning is that Thunderbolts doesn’t have the excuses that hampered other Marvel underperformers. It’s not a brand-new IP with unfamiliar characters. It’s not releasing in the middle of a pandemic. It’s not being quietly dumped or facing off against dominant box office competition. If anything, this should be a safe swing — a cast of recognizable characters, built from existing Disney+ shows and Phase 3-4 films, arriving in a relatively open marketplace. And still, interest is tepid at best.
Pre-sales data tells a sobering story: tickets are now available, and early indicators show “lots of empty seats,” even for Thursday previews and Friday primetime shows. The fanbase isn’t clamoring to be first in line. As Cosmic Book News notes, Thunderbolts will likely rely on word-of-mouth to turn things around — a risky bet for a franchise that has lost considerable trust with casual audiences and hardcore fans alike.
The reliance on social media buzz mirrors the surprise success of the Minecraft movie, which turned around dismal presale numbers with an explosion of TikTok-fueled enthusiasm. But the difference? Minecraft had novelty, Gen Z appeal, and a broader fanbase untethered from a decade of lore. Thunderbolts, by contrast, feels like a patchwork of side characters stitched together after Marvel lost its A-list momentum.
If Thunderbolts fails, it will mark the second straight MCU misfire of 2025, following Captain America: Brave New World, which opened to a modest $88.8 million over President’s Day weekend and has struggled to reach $200 million domestic after more than a month in theaters. That film’s inability to rally interest — despite being built around a core Avenger role — suggests the brand itself may be suffering from deep erosion.
Looking ahead, Disney’s next hope is Fantastic Four: First Steps in July — a so-called “fresh start” for the MCU. But that’s a lot of pressure to place on a reboot of a twice-failed franchise, especially when general audiences no longer consider the Marvel logo a guarantee of quality or excitement. There are more reasons to worry that Fantastic Four could fail.
The team in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
Disney has invested tens of billions into the MCU — not just in film budgets, but in Disney+ series, tie-in merchandise, and theme park integration. A failed MCU slate in 2025 would be more than just a financial underperformance; it would rattle investor confidence, damage the Disney+ value proposition, and potentially force the company to make painful decisions about what once seemed like its most bulletproof IP.
With Thunderbolts facing poor projections, Brave New World floundering, and only Deadpool & Wolverine providing any hope for a mega-hit, the pattern is clear: the MCU is losing cultural traction. And if Thunderbolts ends up as the worst performer in Marvel Studios’ modern history, Disney may finally be forced to acknowledge what fans have seen coming for years — the Marvel formula is broken, and no amount of cameos or callbacks will fix it.
