Marvel Studios is staring down yet another grim milestone. As Thunderbolts begins its theatrical run, domestic box office projections place the film’s opening weekend between $70 and $75 million. On paper, that might sound respectable—but in the context of Marvel’s recent track record, it paints a very different picture.
Harrison Ford as the Red Hulk in Captain America: Brave New World – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
The opening falls well below Captain America: Brave New World, which earned $100 million during its first domestic weekend. That film ultimately grossed just over $414 million worldwide. With a bloated budget and marketing costs factored in, it was widely deemed an abysmal financial loss for Disney.
Now Thunderbolts, a film with a reported $200 million budget before marketing and theater cuts, appears poised to deliver even less box office momentum than a movie already considered a misfire.
Echoes of Eternals
To put this into perspective, Thunderbolts’ projected debut closely mirrors that of 2021’s Eternals, which opened to $71 million domestically. That movie was widely viewed as the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s first major box office failure, despite an ambitious creative vision and a sprawling cast.
(L-R): Kingo (Kumail Nanjiani), Makkari (Lauren Ridloff), Gilgamesh (Don Lee), Thena (Angelina Jolie), Ikaris (Richard Madden), Ajak (Salma Hayek), Sersi (Gemma Chan), Sprite (Lia McHugh), Phastos (Brian Tyree Henry) and Druig (Barry Keoghan) in Marvel Studios‘ ETERNALS. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. ©Marvel Studios 2021. All Rights Reserved.
Since then, Marvel has only seen more volatility in its performance, culminating in what many consider its most damaging theatrical release to date: The Marvels.
(L-R): Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel/Kamala Khan, Brie Larson as Captain Marvel/Carol Danvers, and Teyonah Parris as Captain Monica Rambeau in Marvel Studios’ THE MARVELS. Photo by Laura Radford. © 2023 MARVEL.
That Brie Larsen-led film managed just $63.3 million during its domestic opening weekend. Thunderbolts will surpass it, but not by much, and likely not enough to erase comparisons.
What makes this scenario especially damning is that Thunderbolts is actually enjoying strong audience and critic reception, something its recent predecessors sorely lacked.
A Rare Positive Reaction—With No Payoff
As of opening weekend, Thunderbolts holds a critic score of 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. That would put it in the upper tier of post-Endgame Marvel films.
But even more telling is the reaction from audiences:
• 94% All Audiences score
• 95% Verified Audience score
The team in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
In another era, that kind of reception would have guaranteed strong word-of-mouth and a box office surge. Today, it’s barely moving the needle. The disconnect between reception and results speaks volumes about the current state of the Marvel brand.
Once, Marvel could launch virtually any property—no matter how obscure—and turn it into a billion-dollar juggernaut. Guardians of the Galaxy, Doctor Strange, Black Panther—these weren’t household names before Marvel Studios transformed them into box office anchors. But those days appear to be over.
Broken Trust and a Brand in Decline
What we seem to be witnessing with Thunderbolts isn’t just a poor opening—it’s the continued fallout of a multi-year erosion of audience confidence. Between inconsistent storytelling, overreliance on streaming tie-ins, and a relentless release schedule, Marvel seems to have exhausted the goodwill it spent over a decade building.
Yelena in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
Audiences once lined up sight unseen for anything bearing the Marvel Studios logo. Now, even a well-reviewed film is being met with indifference. It’s not about quality anymore—it’s about trust, and Marvel has lost a considerable amount of it.
The brand fatigue has been accelerated by a string of projects perceived as lackluster or politically driven, not to mention major delays, behind-the-scenes controversies, and shifting leadership. Audiences who once felt invested in a unified cinematic experience are now unsure what, if anything, connects these films—or whether they’re worth the ticket price at all.
A Harsh Financial Outlook
Let’s not forget the numbers. With a $200 million production budget and what is likely another $100–150 million in marketing spend, Thunderbolts will need to earn roughly $700 million globally just to hit the breakeven point. That’s because studios only retain about half of domestic ticket sales and even less from overseas markets.
The team in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
Based on this weekend’s projections, and given the performance of recent Marvel entries, it’s hard to see a path to that goal. International performance will help, but it’s unlikely to make up the shortfall. If the film finishes in the same range as Brave New World or Eternals, it may become yet another red mark on Marvel’s post-Endgame report card.
The Bigger Problem for Disney
This isn’t just about one movie. This is part of a pattern, and it underscores a larger issue for Disney. The studio has bet heavily on the Marvel Cinematic Universe as a cornerstone of its entertainment strategy. But if even its best-reviewed films can’t generate buzz—or box office dollars—then the problem isn’t the movies themselves. It’s the brand.
Bucky in Marvels Thunderbolts* – YouTube, Marvel Entertainment
At some point, Marvel will need to confront the reality that the trust of its core audience can’t be regained overnight. High review scores and better storytelling are important—but they won’t matter if audiences have already moved on.
What do you think about the Thunderbolts opening weekend box office? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
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I heard that this movie was a return to form and a huge game changer. Seriously though, who the hell thought centering around Florence Pugh would be a huge box office hit?
What was even the appeal of Thunderbolts? There was nothing in the trailers that made me interested in this movie at all.
This bad news for Rotten Tomatoes. People stopped believing its scores. Because we know that RT’s scores are increasingly FAKE positive-reviews.
From my POV, as a member of the core audience of comic-book movies, this movie has nothing to offer. I’m the core audience and Disney is so bad, I boycott it, and have done for ten years. I watch OLD comic-book movies, before DEI and wokery.