The Wicked: For Good box office has gone into a full collapse in its third weekend with a disastrous 72.9% drop.
Despite a massive opening weekend and sky-high anticipation for Universal’s holiday musical event, the sequel is now projected to finish its run at just $540–590 million worldwide, according to new industry estimates highlighted by FilmUpdates.
‘WICKED: FOR GOOD’ is now eyeing a $540–590M run at the worldwide box office.
It cost $150M to produce. pic.twitter.com/WAmvuzplJe
— Film Updates (@FilmUpdates) December 7, 2025
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That number puts it hundreds of millions below the original 2024 Wicked, which topped $758.7 million globally.
For a film once touted as a potential billion-dollar contender, this turn of events is nothing short of stunning.
A Record Opening Followed by a Record Drop
The numbers tell the story clearly — and brutally.
Ariana Grande sits among propaganda magazines in Wicked: For Good – Universal
After debuting with $147 million domestic and $223 million worldwide, the biggest box office opening ever for a Broadway adaptation, Wicked: For Good looked unstoppable. But the momentum evaporated almost immediately.
- Thanksgiving weekend drop: 58% (unusually steep for the holiday corridor)
- Third weekend drop: a catastrophic 74.7%, per Deadline and Box Office Mojo
- Domestic weekend #3 total: roughly $15.6M–$16.7M
- Domestic cumulative total: $296M, verified via Box Office Mojo
At this pace, the Wicked: For Good box office is tracking well below even conservative early projections.
Global Performance Fails to Pick Up the Slack
International markets were supposed to soften the domestic blows — they didn’t.
The poster for Wicked – Universal
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As of now, the global tally sits at approximately $440 million, with the sequel continuing to mirror the first film’s strong domestic-heavy distribution pattern. Unfortunately for Universal, a domestic-leaning performance becomes a problem when the domestic audience collapses this quickly.
With diminishing returns worldwide, hitting the $600 million ceiling is looking increasingly unlikely.
How Did a Sequel This Big Fall This Fast?
Several factors are becoming clear:
1. Frontloaded demand
The fanbase showed up big opening weekend — and then didn’t return. Even with a strong 93% Verified Popcorn score and a CinemaScore of A, enthusiastic early audiences didn’t translate into sustained interest.
Ariana Grande as Glinda in Wicked – Peacock
This could also be attributed to the film’s darker and heavier tone. While the original was infinitely re-watchable for families, the somber tone of the sequel doesn’t invite repeat theater visits.
2. Mixed reviews compared to the original
While the film remains “Fresh,” its reception is more muted, lacking the cultural spark that drove repeat business for Wicked (2024).
3. Direct competition from Zootopia 2 & FNAF 2
Disney’s animated juggernaut continues to dominate family audiences during a season where musicals usually thrive.
Nick Wilde from Zootopia 2 and Freddy from FNAF 2 – Disney; Universal
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Additionally, Universal’s Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 opened this weekend to a sizable box office debut.
4. Poor third-weekend resiliency
A –74.7% crash would be devastating for any film — for a holiday tentpole, it’s unprecedented.
5. A disastrous press tour
The film’s promotional tour did the movie no favors either. What should have been a celebratory global rollout quickly turned into a viral spectacle for all the wrong reasons. Interviews featuring Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande repeatedly drew backlash online, with clips circulating on TikTok and X showing awkward exchanges, unusual weeping tonal shifts, and comments that many viewers described as off-putting.
Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande on the Wicked Press Tour – YouTube, GLAAD
Instead of energizing the fanbase, these moments dominated the conversation in the worst possible way, overshadowing discussion of the movie itself. Several entertainment commentators have even suggested that the strange, stilted interviews actively discouraged casual moviegoers who were already uncertain about the darker tone of the sequel.
For a project this expensive — and one that depends heavily on audience goodwill — a press tour becoming meme-fodder instead of a hype machine can meaningfully hurt legs at the box office. Universal needed momentum; instead, the cast unintentionally handed critics and doom-posters a steady drip of viral content framing the film as something audiences didn’t want to engage with.
It’ll Still Make Money — But It Isn’t the Win Universal Wanted
With a $150 million production budget (before marketing) and a break-even point estimated around $375 million, Wicked: For Good is not a financial disaster. It will turn a profit on paper.
Elphaba and Glinda on a swing in Wicked: For Good – Universal
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But Universal didn’t market this film as a “profitable musical.” They marketed it as a global event — one half of a two-part blockbuster musical saga expected to dominate the holiday box office for back-to-back years.
Instead, the studio now confronts a sequel whose audience appears sharply limited, whose legs have given out, and whose final total may land $170–220 million below the first film.
Elphaba and Glinda in Wicked – Peacock
That reality changes the narrative — and perhaps Universal’s expectations for any potential Wicked 3.
A Franchise at a Crossroads
The most striking part of the Wicked: For Good box office collapse is how quickly the hype turned. A billion-dollar dream project is now fighting just to cross $550 million.
Unless the film experiences a holiday miracle or an international surge, the sequel will go down as a major underperformance relative to expectations — not a flop, but a dramatic correction to the franchise’s perceived strength.
Ariana Grande in Wicked – Peacock
Universal will now have to confront a difficult question: Was the demand for two back-to-back Wicked movies ever as strong as the opening weekend suggested, or was it a frontloaded musical phenomenon that burned out almost instantly?
The Wicked: For Good box office is no longer defying gravity. It’s falling — fast.
Are you surprised that Wicked: For Good has collapsed at the box office? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
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