Could the U.S. government shutdown ultimately harm Hollywood?
The government shutdown threatens to take away food stamps (discretionary income) and could gravely damage family movie money as a result. With Avatar: Fire and Ash coming in late and Stranger Things mostly playing on New Year’s in 2026, can the domestic box office even match the horrible totals for last year?
As of Thursday, October 30, 2025, the domestic year-to-date (YTD) gross stands at $6.86B. On the same YTD basis last year, 2024 was at $6.67B—so 2025 is tracking about +2.9% ahead of 2024 through the end of October.
For context, full-year 2024 ultimately finished at $8.57B. That’s the target 2025 would need to clear by December 31st to “beat” last year overall.
Lilo and Stitch with Nani in the Live Action Lilo & Stitch movie – YouTube, IGN
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With $6.86B already banked, 2025 needs roughly $1.71B over November–December to match 2024’s $8.57B. By comparison, the final two months of 2024 delivered a very robust ~$1.89B (about $900.7M in November and $986.3M in December), powered by Wicked, Moana 2, Mufasa: The Lion King, and Sonic the Hedgehog 3.
Sonic, Knuckles, and Tails from the Sonic The Hedgehog 3 Trailer – Paramount Pictures
That holiday stack will be hard to replicate.
- Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Nov 21, 2025. Long-range tracking pegs a domestic opening in the $130M–$155M range, a genuine year-saving tentpole if it holds. Official site confirms the date.
- Zootopia 2 (Disney) — Nov 26, 2025. Boxoffice Pro’s long-range shows $95M–$110M (3-day) and a $140M–$160M (5-day Thanksgiving) frame potential—classic family four-quadrant fuel for the holidays.
- The Running Man (Paramount) — Nov 14, 2025. Forecasted $40M–$50M opening; could play long if word-of-mouth cooperates.
- Predator: Badlands (20th) — Nov 7, 2025. Forecasted $35M–$45M opening; adds genre heft in early November.
Recent weekends have been soft, Boxoffice Pro even warned of “one of the worst weekends of 2025” heading into Halloween, so momentum into November matters.
So…will 2025 underperform 2024?
Two-month math:
- Break-even vs. 2024 full-year: ~$1.71B needed in Nov–Dec 2025.
- Benchmark (2024’s Nov–Dec): ~$1.89B.
Bull case: If Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2 hit the high ends of tracking and leg out like prior top holiday titles, and mid-tier releases (Running Man, Predator: Badlands) hold, 2025 can plausibly land in the $1.7B–$1.9B holiday range, which means matching or narrowly topping 2024 is on the table.
Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba in the trailer for the Wicked movie, YouTube – Universal Pictures
Bear case: 2024’s December was unusually stacked (Wicked + Moana 2 + Mufasa + Sonic 3). If 2025’s family turnout or holdover legs soften—or if early-November titles under-index—holiday could slide closer to ~$1.5B–$1.6B, leaving 2025 a bit short of 2024’s $8.57B.
Current read: Entering November, 2025 is slightly ahead YTD but faces a higher bar in holiday comps. Given the slate and tracking, it’s a true toss-up: a strong Thanksgiving corridor (especially if Zootopia 2 over-delivers) would make 2025 meet or edge past 2024; a merely “good” holiday likely means a modest underperformance vs. 2024.
A screenshot from A Minecraft Movie – YouTube, Warner Bros.
It’s worth noting that the year has already been buoyed by hits like A Minecraft Movie, which posted the biggest opening of 2025 and helped narrow the early-year gap. Meanwhile, genre pieces like Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle and The Black Phone 2 have kept cash flowing in quieter frames. Still, we’ve not seen a single film that had record breaking discussions and even Stitch only barely broke a billion for Disney.!
Bottom line: Through October, 2025 is narrowly ahead of 2024. Whether it underperforms or edges past 2024 will be decided by Thanksgiving–Christmas—principally how high Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2 fly, and whether November’s genre fare adds enough lift.
Do you think the government shutdown will hinder Hollywood and the global box office? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
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But… but… aren’t food stamps are for poor, desperate people with no money? The last resort before starvation and stuff? How are these people paying for movies? I can barely afford to go to the movies and I work!
But seriously: the shutdown has brought to light tons of problems with the SNAP program. I saw one person person, without a job of course, complaining because they’re 3,000 a month SNAP benefit might not be there Nov 1st. $3,000 of untaxed benefits a month isn’t much less than someone making a gross income of a $45k/yr.
At the same time we hear about food being used as “remittance” to places like DR where people use their SNAP benefits to buy food in the US on sale, ship it down to some place where it gets sold for more. Or a story I heard about how the shelves in Hawaiian stores get cleaned out of SPAM by SNAP folks at the first of the month then they go sell it to street vendors and food trucks.
It is a racket, and it needs to have a serious audit. It is too bad DOGE got neutered, this is exactly the type of thing they could suss out. “Hey, why is this person buying $3,000 of SPAM on the first of every month and nothing else?”
You can use SNAP benefits on Amazon! You can buy soda and candy on your SNAP card!
WTF Government?
Ticket prices (and associated toxic snacks rip-off costs) mean the poor cannot afford the cinema, these days. So, the shut down won’t make much difference. The men who have money (Whites) are now boycotting Hollywood, whilst the woke-and-broke are priced out.