The latest box office update for Captain America: Brave New World spells all-too-familiar trouble for Marvel Studios, as presale tickets are tracking just 1.4 times better than The Marvels and on par with The Eternals. While this may sound like a slight improvement on paper, it’s a significant red flag for the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
A Troubling Comparison to The Eternals
Released in 2021, The Eternals marked Marvel’s first major financial failure, grossing just $164.9 million domestically and $237.2 million internationally for a worldwide total of $402 million.
The Eternals had a production budget of $236.2 million.
(L-R): Sprite (Lia McHugh), Druig (Barry Keoghan), Kingo (Kumail Nanjiani), Phastos (Brian Tyree Henry), Karun (Harish Patel), Sersi (Gemma Chan) and Ikaris (Richard Madden) in Marvel Studios‘ ETERNALS. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. ©Marvel Studios 2021. All Rights Reserved.
Brave New World faces a much steeper climb. With a rumored production budget between $350 and $375 million—over $100 million more than The Eternals at the lowest projection—this film could become a far bigger bomb even if it performs similarly at the box office. After factoring in marketing costs, which often equal the production budget, and theater cuts of ticket sales, the movie would need to exceed $900 million globally to break even according to some projections.
Based on current reports, Brave New World is unlikely to hit that target.
Box Office Projections Confirm the Decline
As previously reported, opening weekend projections for Brave New World are estimated to land between $81 million and $107 million with a median figure of $96 million. Many outlets are quick to point out that the film is tracking similarly to 2014’s Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as if that’s a positive.
It’s not.
Captain America/Sam Wilson (Anthony Mackie) in Marvel Studios’ CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD, exclusively on Disney+. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2024 MARVEL.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier opened domestically at $95 million and grossed $259.7 million at home. Adjusted for inflation, The Winter Soldier’s opening weekend climbs to $126.6 million and its domestic haul to $356 million—both far beyond what Brave New World is tracking to achieve.
Even worse, ticket prices have increased dramatically since 2014, when the average movie ticket was $8.14. Now, with an average ticket price of $10.78, even matching The Winter Soldier’s $95 million opening weekend would mean far fewer people are watching Brave New World.
These numbers paint a dire picture for the once-reliable Captain America franchise.
Could Captain America Brave New World Bomb Worse Than The Marvels?
The financial collapse of The Marvels serves as a dire warning for Captain America: Brave New World.
Disney’s financial reports list The Marvels with a production budget of $274.8 million, but Forbes estimates the true cost to be closer to $374 million—comparable to the higher end of Brave New World’s rumored budget.
(L-R): Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel/Kamala Khan, Brie Larson as Captain Marvel/Carol Danvers, and Teyonah Parris as Captain Monica Rambeau in Marvel Studios’ THE MARVELS. Photo by Laura Radford. © 2023 MARVEL
Despite the enormous investment, The Marvels grossed a mere $206 million worldwide, including $82 million domestically and $124 million internationally. The film’s financial failure was compounded by multiple rounds of reshoots, which reportedly aimed to address structural issues in the narrative and improve audience reception.
However, these efforts were ultimately in vain, as The Marvels became Marvel’s most significant flop to date.
Unfortunately, Captain America: Brave New World faces a disturbingly similar production trajectory. Extensive reshoots earlier this year added Giancarlo Esposito’s character, Sidewinder, to the narrative, increasing both costs and concerns about the film’s cohesiveness.
Anthony Mackie behind the scenes of Marvel Studios’ CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD. Photo by Eli Adé. © 2024 MARVEL.
If Brave New World follows The Marvels in delivering underwhelming box office results, it could cement itself as an even larger financial disaster due to its inflated budget.
With opening weekend projections for Brave New World between $81 million and $107 million, the film is on shaky ground. Even optimistic predictions pale in comparison to previous Marvel successes and fail to inspire confidence that this entry will reverse the MCU’s recent downward trend. Unless the film exceeds expectations dramatically, Brave New World could become yet another massive financial failure for Disney and Marvel Studios.
The Fallout of Identity Politics in Marvel’s Storytelling
Adding to the box office challenges, Captain America: Brave New World directly follows the Disney+ series The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, which sparked backlash for its heavy-handed embrace of identity politics. While the series centered on Sam Wilson (Anthony Mackie) taking up the mantle of Captain America, many fans felt the show’s focus on social commentary came at the expense of character development and compelling storytelling. This criticism has carried over to Brave New World, with audiences seemingly uninterested in what’s been perceived as another DEI-driven project from Disney.
Anthony Mackie as Sam Wilson/Captain America in Marvel Studios’ CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2024 MARVEL.
Anthony Mackie’s Captain America has struggled to resonate with audiences in the same way Chris Evans’ Steve Rogers did. Evans’ portrayal of the patriotic superhero became iconic, and his absence leaves a void that Marvel has yet to fill effectively. This shift in focus, combined with the lack of compelling marketing, has led to dwindling enthusiasm for Marvel’s post-Endgame films.
The parallels between Brave New World and The Eternals highlight a troubling trend for Marvel Studios. Both films suffered from massive budgets, lackluster audience engagement, and divisive storytelling choices. However, the stakes are even higher for Brave New World due to its bloated production costs and pressure to redeem a struggling franchise.
(L-R): Kingo (Kumail Nanjiani), Makkari (Lauren Ridloff), Gilgamesh (Don Lee), Thena (Angelina Jolie), Ikaris (Richard Madden), Ajak (Salma Hayek), Sersi (Gemma Chan), Sprite (Lia McHugh), Phastos (Brian Tyree Henry) and Druig (Barry Keoghan) in Marvel Studios’ ETERNALS. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. ©Marvel Studios 2021. All Rights Reserved.
What once seemed like a guaranteed blockbuster formula is now faltering under the weight of identity politics, bloated budgets, and increasingly skeptical audiences. With Captain America: Brave New World set to release in just a month, Marvel and Disney face a pivotal moment. Can the MCU reclaim its former glory, or is this the latest sign of a franchise in decline?
What do you think will happen at the box office when Captain America: Brave New World releases in theaters next month? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
