Just when it seemed like the box office outlook for Snow White couldn’t get worse, new projections indicate that the film is set to open even lower than initially expected. According to a leading Hollywood research firm, the live-action remake is now tracking for a $53 million opening weekend in North America, with estimates ranging between $48 million and $58 million. This is a significant drop from earlier forecasts, which had projected a $63-$70 million debut.
Rachel Zegler as Snow White in Snow White (2025), Walt Disney Studios
With just three weeks until its March 21 release, Disney’s final marketing push is now in full swing, but whether it can change the trajectory remains to be seen. While some tracking services remain optimistic, pointing to supposed strong awareness among younger female audiences, these numbers represent a serious problem for a film of this scale.
A Disastrous Financial Outlook
The official budget for Snow White has been reported at $200 million-plus, but insiders suggest the real cost could be well over $300 million due to extensive reshoots and production delays. That means Snow White would need to earn upwards of $800 million globally just to break even—a feat that now looks increasingly unlikely.
For comparison, The Little Mermaid (2023) debuted with a $95.6 million domestic opening and still struggled to turn a meaningful profit despite grossing $569.6 million worldwide. Even Cinderella (2015), another Disney live-action remake, opened to $67 million at a time in which movie tickets were far cheaper, which Snow White now looks unlikely to match.
Halle Bailey as Ariel in Disney’s live-action THE LITTLE MERMAID. Photo courtesy of Disney. © 2023 Disney Enterprises, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
To make matters worse, Disney’s marketing approach has been inconsistent, first positioning the film as a reinvention, then backpedaling in recent months by leaning heavily on nostalgia, even using footage from the original 1937 animated classic in a recent TV spot.
Rachel Zegler’s Controversies Still Loom Large
It’s impossible to discuss the troubles surrounding Snow White without mentioning lead actress Rachel Zegler’s role in alienating audiences. From the beginning, her casting drew attention, but it was her own comments that did the most damage.
Zegler made headlines for calling the 1937 film dated and dismissing the prince as a “stalker.” She also made it clear that this Snow White would not be a love story, saying her version of the character wouldn’t be “dreaming about true love” but instead focusing on leadership. The attempt to reframe the classic story as something completely different rubbed longtime Disney fans the wrong way.
Rachel Zegler singing in the Snow White Trailer – YouTube, Disney
Now, months later, Zegler has pivoted to a more corporate-friendly tone, saying in a recent interview, “Disney has found this beautiful and delicate balance between the animated classic that everyone knows and loves from 1937, and at the same time, introduces it to this new generation.” This change in messaging comes across as a transparent PR move aimed at repairing the damage done by her previous remarks.
Marketing Continues to Shift Focus Away From Zegler
Disney seems to be aware that Zegler is not the most effective face for Snow White. As covered in previous articles, the studio has steadily reduced her presence in trailers, cutting her screen time by nearly 50% in recent promotional spots. Instead, marketing has shifted the focus toward Gal Gadot’s Evil Queen, likely an attempt to appeal to audiences who may be turned off by Zegler’s past comments.
Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen in Disney’s live-action SNOW WHITE. Photo courtesy of Disney. © 2024 Disney Enterprises Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Even the latest TV spot leaned heavily on nostalgia, featuring significant footage from the original 1937 animated film, a stark contrast to the earlier messaging about the remake being a bold reimagining.
Disney’s Risky Bet and the Final Marketing Push
Despite these bleak Snow White box office projections, some within Hollywood still argue that Disney shouldn’t be underestimated. They point to Mufasa: The Lion King, which had a weak domestic opening of $35 million but ultimately crossed $700 million worldwide. However, Mufasa had the advantage of being a sequel to a billion-dollar hit.
Snow White does not have that luxury. It’s already facing widespread public skepticism, massive dislike ratios on YouTube, and a leading actress who has alienated core audiences. Additionally, the Snow White press tour is about to begin, and giving Rachel Zegler a live microphone every day for a few weeks is unlikely to help anything.
Rachel Zegler as Snow White in Snow White (2025), Walt Disney Studios
At this stage, Disney’s only hope is that its final marketing push—one that now leans on nostalgia rather than reinvention—can salvage the film’s performance. But with projections dropping and costs rising, Snow White is shaping up to be one of Disney’s most financially risky projects in recent memory.
How do you feel about these updated Snow White box office projections? Sound off in the comments and let us know!
