The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Tracking For $145M+ Debut As Box Office Eyes Massive Opening

Early box office tracking indicates that The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could be headed for one of the biggest box office openings of 2026.

According to industry projections cited by Box Office Pro, the upcoming animated sequel is currently tracking for a $145 million to $160 million opening weekend at the North American box office, with estimates rising to $160 million to $175 million over the extended five-day launch window.

If those numbers hold, the sequel could rival — and potentially surpass — the opening weekend performance of its predecessor, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which debuted with $146.4 million domestically when it arrived in theaters in 2023.

The film is scheduled to hit theaters on April 1, 2026, positioning it as one of the most anticipated theatrical releases of the year.

A Tough Benchmark To Beat

While the sequel’s early projections are impressive, the bar set by the original film is extremely high.

Released in 2023, The Super Mario Bros. Movie quickly became one of the biggest animated hits of the decade. The film went on to generate $1.361 billion worldwide, making it the second-highest-grossing movie of 2023, trailing only Barbie.

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The movie’s domestic opening weekend of $146.4 million remains one of the largest debuts ever for an animated film and helped launch the film toward its eventual billion-dollar global run.

Because of that success, expectations for the sequel have been enormous ever since Nintendo and Illumination confirmed the next installment in the franchise.

A Major Lead Over Other 2026 Releases

The projected launch for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie would easily outpace many other films released this year.

For comparison, the horror sequel Scream 7 recently opened to $63.6 million domestically, making it the largest debut of 2026 so far.

Mario, Yoshi, and Frog Luigi in the Super Mario Galaxy Movie trailer – YouTube, Nintendo of America

Meanwhile, Ryan Gosling’s upcoming sci-fi film Project Hail Mary is currently projected to debut in the $45 million to $55 million range, according to industry forecasts.

If the Mario sequel lands near the upper end of its projection, it would instantly become one of the biggest openings of the year and could position itself as another billion-dollar contender.

Expanding The Mario Universe

The new film continues the story that began in the first movie.

In The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Mario and Luigi are transported to the Mushroom Kingdom, where Mario teams up with Princess Peach and other allies to rescue Luigi from Bowser.

Princess Rosalina looks up in the Super Mario Galaxy Movie – YouTube, Nintendo of America

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The upcoming sequel will reportedly expand the franchise’s world considerably. Mario and Luigi will once again join forces with Peach and Toad, while the story also introduces Yoshi and Princess Rosalina, taking the adventure into outer space.

Bowser’s son Bowser Jr. will also play a major role in the conflict.

Can Lightning Strike Twice?

Sequels often face the difficult challenge of matching the explosive success of their predecessors.

However, the Mario brand has already demonstrated enormous global appeal, thanks in large part to Nintendo’s decades-long popularity in gaming.

Bowser Jr. in The Super Mario Galaxy Movie – YouTube, Nintendo of America

If the current projections hold, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could once again deliver a massive opening weekend — and potentially prove that Nintendo’s animated franchise still has plenty of momentum at the box office.

The real test will come when the film finally lands in theaters on April 1.

How do you think the Super Mario Galaxy Movie will do at the box office? Sound off in the comments and let us know!

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